Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-11-07?
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (14%) · Yes at 56¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 14%
$4.2K
$0.95
Research grade
NeutralYes at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
32h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
14% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Stickman22 | Yesavg 56.5¢ | $2.3K | $2.2K | -$40 | 51% 1736-1645 (3381) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 43¢ | $882.24 | $913.02 | +$30.78 | 51% 25773-24474 (50247) |
DV dv-pmCTR | Noavg 44¢ | $881.54 | $891.56 | +$10.02 | 49% 3328-3529 (6857) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Noavg 45.1¢ | $83.39 | $82.29 | -$0.68 | 53% 2579-2261 (4840) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $52.74 | $53.34 | +$0.6 | 53% 16808-14937 (31745) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 43.6¢ | $25.55 | $20.58 | +$0.2 | 58% 46712-33673 (80385) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $2.23 | +$0.03 | 51% 37678-36903 (74581) |
Stickman22Invested
$2,259.99
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$40
Record
51%
1736-1645 (3381)
Invested
$882.24
Value
$913.02
PnL
+$30.78
Record
51%
25773-24474 (50247)
Invested
$881.54
Value
$891.56
PnL
+$10.02
Record
49%
3328-3529 (6857)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$83.39
Value
$82.29
PnL
-$0.68
Record
53%
2579-2261 (4840)
Invested
$52.74
Value
$53.34
PnL
+$0.6
Record
53%
16808-14937 (31745)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$25.55
Value
$20.58
PnL
+$0.2
Record
58%
46712-33673 (80385)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$2.23
PnL
+$0.03
Record
51%
37678-36903 (74581)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.