SG Dynamo Dresden vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 5.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 94¢ · $190 held · ended Sep 5
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 20%
$190.39
$134.24
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 76.9¢ | $134.93 | $151.12 | +$177.64 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100 | Overavg 14.6¢ | $48.41 | $30.74 | -$17.67 | 42% 8192-11384 (19576) |
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100 | Overavg 23¢ | $22.42 | $6.32 | -$21.61 | 62% 1928-1173 (3101) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 17¢ | $4.08 | $1.56 | -$2.52 | 53% 63014-55227 (118241) |
AR ARocky33CTR<$100 | Overavg 16.7¢ | $1.67 | $0.65 | -$1.6 | 76% 4579-1422 (6001) |
Invested
$134.93
Value
$151.12
PnL
+$177.64
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$48.41
Value
$30.74
PnL
-$17.67
Record
42%
8192-11384 (19576)
Invested
$22.42
Value
$6.32
PnL
-$21.61
Record
62%
1928-1173 (3101)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$4.08
Value
$1.56
PnL
-$2.52
Record
53%
63014-55227 (118241)
Invested
$1.67
Value
$0.65
PnL
-$1.6
Record
76%
4579-1422 (6001)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.