DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: 1st Half O/U 2.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 40%
2 arb excluded
$1.8K
$343.53
70.4¢ → 100¢
+42% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 75.4¢ | $637.73 | $810.93 | +$173.2 | 59% 45380-31733 (77113) |
DA dashattacker | Underavg 62.7¢ | $345.9 | $486.31 | +$140.4 | 72% 2363-907 (3270) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 69¢ | $200.2 | $187.4 | -$12.8 | 54% 56326-48479 (104805) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 69¢ | $124.2 | $127.17 | +$2.97 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 37¢ | $76 | $60.23 | -$15.77 | |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Overavg 40.4¢ | $150.54 | $178.86 | +$28.32 | 50% 33199-32726 (65925) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $105.87 | $103.8 | -$2.07 | 48% 765-826 (1591) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 38¢ | $76.61 | $73.89 | -$2.72 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 62¢ | $29.26 | $29.91 | +$0.65 | |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 13.1¢ | $2.71 | $9.94 | +$7.23 | 49% 12488-12848 (25336) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 37.5¢ | $14.44 | $8.81 | -$5.62 | 52% 4004-3650 (7654) |
Invested
$637.73
Value
$810.93
PnL
+$173.2
Record
59%
45380-31733 (77113)
Invested
$345.9
Value
$486.31
PnL
+$140.4
Record
72%
2363-907 (3270)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$200.2
Value
$187.4
PnL
-$12.8
Record
54%
56326-48479 (104805)
Both legs:
Invested
$150.54
Value
$178.86
PnL
+$28.32
Record
50%
33199-32726 (65925)
Invested
$105.87
Value
$103.8
PnL
-$2.07
Record
48%
765-826 (1591)
Both legs:
Invested
$2.71
Value
$9.94
PnL
+$7.23
Record
49%
12488-12848 (25336)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$14.44
Value
$8.81
PnL
-$5.62
Record
52%
4004-3650 (7654)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.