Parma Perm vs. BC Zenit

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold BC Zenit (78%) · BC Zenit at 100¢ · $845 held · ends Nov 22

Parma Perm<1¢BC Zenit>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

BC Zenit

Consensus Traders

BC Zenit 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$845.04

Combined PnL

$26.85

Smart Money Entry

72.7¢ → 100¢

+38% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidBC Zenit at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BC Zenit

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Parma Perm0%

BC Zenit100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BC Zenit7 traders

Total Value$303.43

Total Shares333

Combined PnL+$43.43

Parma Perm2 traders

Total Value$27.11

Total Shares184

Combined PnL-$16.58

BC Zenit — 78%Parma Perm — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on BC Zenit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpBC Zenit 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBC Zenit 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000BC Zenit 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Parma Permavg 50¢	$525	$514.5	-$10.5	50% 1112-1113 (2225)
└ BC Zenit leg	BC Zenitavg 50¢	$262.5	$393.75	+$131.25
└ Parma Perm leg	Parma Permavg 50¢	$262.5	$120.75	-$141.75
FL Flaznorp	BC Zenitavg 76.5¢	$110.83	$128.92	+$18.09	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	BC Zenitavg 73¢	$75.07	$80	+$4.92	83% 960-199 (1159)
poshposh<$100	BC Zenitavg 68.5¢	$31.55	$44.32	+$12.78	49% 1306-1379 (2685)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Parma Permavg 38¢	$43.41	$26.28	-$17.14	47% 1186-1358 (2544)
38 38791873984189<$100	BC Zenitavg 65¢	$19.5	$23.1	+$3.6	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
LR lryyy<$100	BC Zenitavg 68.1¢	$10.9	$12.32	+$1.42	45% 963-1156 (2119)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	BC Zenitavg 61¢	$7.95	$9.77	+$1.82	46% 621-730 (1351)
FE ferdinand2<$100	BC Zenitavg 84¢	$4.2	$5	+$0.8	48% 2518-2728 (5246)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Parma Permavg 0.4¢	$0.28	$0.84	+$0.56	53% 7468-6589 (14057)

NotJumpARB<$100

Parma Perm

Invested

$525

Value

$514.5

PnL

-$10.5

Record

50%

1112-1113 (2225)

Both legs:

BC Zenit$262.550¢+$131.25

Parma Perm$262.550¢-$141.75

Flaznorp

BC Zenit

Invested

$110.83

Value

$128.92

PnL

+$18.09

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

BC Zenit

Invested

$75.07

Value

$80

PnL

+$4.92

Record

83%

960-199 (1159)

poshposh<$100

BC Zenit

Invested

$31.55

Value

$44.32

PnL

+$12.78

Record

49%

1306-1379 (2685)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Parma Perm

Invested

$43.41

Value

$26.28

PnL

-$17.14

Record

47%

1186-1358 (2544)

38791873984189<$100

BC Zenit

Invested

$19.5

Value

$23.1

PnL

+$3.6

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

lryyy<$100

BC Zenit

Invested

$10.9

Value

$12.32

PnL

+$1.42

Record

45%

963-1156 (2119)

omnibus-076daa<$100

BC Zenit

Invested

$7.95

Value

$9.77

PnL

+$1.82

Record

46%

621-730 (1351)

ferdinand2<$100

BC Zenit

Invested

$4.2

Value

PnL

+$0.8

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Parma Perm

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.84

PnL

+$0.56

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

Research grade

AvoidBC Zenit at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

BC Zenit

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on BC Zenit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpBC Zenit 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBC Zenit 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000BC Zenit 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BC Zenit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.