Parma Perm vs. Unics Kazan

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Unics Kazan (67%) · Unics Kazan at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 18

Parma Perm<1¢Unics Kazan>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Unics Kazan

Consensus Traders

Unics Kazan 67%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$205.85

Smart Money Entry

79¢ → 100¢

+26% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnics Kazan at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Unics Kazan

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Parma Perm0%

Unics Kazan100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Unics Kazan4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,361

Combined PnL+$248.75

Parma Perm2 traders

Total Value$0.23

Total Shares169

Combined PnL-$42.9

Unics Kazan — 67%Parma Perm — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Unics Kazan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnics Kazan 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Unics Kazan 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Unics Kazanavg 78.4¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$210.31	51% 1842-1797 (3639)
38 38791873984189	Unics Kazanavg 78.4¢	$295.78	$325.4	+$59.32	48% 1352-1466 (2818)
CI cigarettes	Unics Kazanavg 80.6¢	$252.13	$284.34	+$32.21	53% 5689-5114 (10803)
alpheclabs2	Unics Kazanavg 82.2¢	$311.9	$258.82	-$53.08	45% 116-143 (259)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Parma Permavg 30.7¢	$4.63	$0.15	-$4.48	37% 346-578 (924)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Parma Permavg 25¢	$38.5	$0.08	-$38.42	28% 161-405 (566)

Flaznorp

Unics Kazan

Invested

$1,281.97

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$210.31

Record

51%

1842-1797 (3639)

38791873984189

Unics Kazan

Invested

$295.78

Value

$325.4

PnL

+$59.32

Record

48%

1352-1466 (2818)

cigarettes

Unics Kazan

Invested

$252.13

Value

$284.34

PnL

+$32.21

Record

53%

5689-5114 (10803)

alpheclabs2

Unics Kazan

Invested

$311.9

Value

$258.82

PnL

-$53.08

Record

45%

116-143 (259)

sentrioCTR<$100

Parma Perm

Invested

$4.63

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$4.48

Record

37%

346-578 (924)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Parma Perm

Invested

$38.5

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$38.42

Record

28%

161-405 (566)

Research grade

AvoidUnics Kazan at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Unics Kazan

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+27 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Unics Kazan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnics Kazan 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Unics Kazan 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Unics Kazan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.