MBA Moscow vs. Avtodor
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold MBA Moscow (63%) · MBA Moscow at 83¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 17
⚠️
Avoid
MBA Moscow
8
MBA Moscow 63%
$1.7K
$55.04
79.1¢ → 82.5¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidMBA Moscow at 83%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on MBA Moscow. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | MBA Moscowavg 79.5¢ | $945.45 | $981.25 | +$35.8 | 52% 242-227 (469) |
ST stepanka1234 | MBA Moscowavg 78.1¢ | $286.6 | $306.31 | +$19.71 | — 0-1 (1) |
SE sentrio | MBA Moscowavg 79.6¢ | $143.92 | $149.08 | +$5.16 | 23% 49-166 (215) |
 dips.<$100 | MBA Moscowavg 76¢ | $71.44 | $78.49 | +$7.05 | 46% 90-106 (196) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | MBA Moscowavg 81¢ | $66.03 | $67.25 | +$1.22 | 49% 388-405 (793) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Avtodoravg 23.9¢ | $75.35 | $63.96 | -$11.4 | 48% 61-65 (126) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Avtodoravg 18¢ | $42.77 | $42.77 | -$0 | 45% 38-47 (85) |
BA BayupatiCTR<$100 | Avtodoravg 22¢ | $10.01 | $7.51 | -$2.5 | 0% 0-51 (51) |
Invested
$945.45
Value
$981.25
PnL
+$35.8
Record
52%
242-227 (469)
Invested
$286.6
Value
$306.31
PnL
+$19.71
Record
—
0-1 (1)
Invested
$143.92
Value
$149.08
PnL
+$5.16
Record
23%
49-166 (215)
dips.<$100Invested
$71.44
Value
$78.49
PnL
+$7.05
Record
46%
90-106 (196)
Invested
$66.03
Value
$67.25
PnL
+$1.22
Record
49%
388-405 (793)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$75.35
Value
$63.96
PnL
-$11.4
Record
48%
61-65 (126)
Invested
$42.77
Value
$42.77
PnL
-$0
Record
45%
38-47 (85)
Invested
$10.01
Value
$7.51
PnL
-$2.5
Record
0%
0-51 (51)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.