Lokomotiv Kuban vs. Parma Perm

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Lokomotiv Kuban (45%) · Lokomotiv Kuban at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Lokomotiv Kuban>99¢Parma Perm<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Lokomotiv Kuban

Consensus Traders

Lokomotiv Kuban 45%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$75.46

Smart Money Entry

75.5¢ → 100¢

+32% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidLokomotiv Kuban at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lokomotiv Kuban

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lokomotiv Kuban100%

Parma Perm0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lokomotiv Kuban5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,639

Combined PnL+$285.66

Parma Perm6 traders

Total Value$18.19

Total Shares1,413

Combined PnL-$361.11

Lokomotiv Kuban — 45%Parma Perm — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Lokomotiv Kuban. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpLokomotiv Kuban 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrParma Perm 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedParma Perm 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Parma Perm 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Lokomotiv Kubanavg 77.9¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$199.88	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
ST stepanka1234	Lokomotiv Kubanavg 70.9¢	$691.44	$784.94	+$93.5	76% 64-20 (84)
dips.<$100	Lokomotiv Kubanavg 97¢	$19.4	$19.99	+$0.59	47% 11022-12642 (23664)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Parma Permavg 29¢	$16.09	$14.61	-$1.84	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
38 38791873984189	Lokomotiv Kubanavg 81¢	$432.8	$7.28	-$8.68	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
LR lryyy<$100	Lokomotiv Kubanavg 90¢	$3.33	$3.7	+$0.37	47% 9568-10685 (20253)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Parma Permavg 23.5¢	$8.14	$2.08	-$6.06	50% 21550-21844 (43394)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Parma Permavg 8¢	$0.8	$0.85	+$0.05	59% 33226-23391 (56617)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Parma Permavg 28¢	$189.31	$0.34	-$188.97	57% 4276-3206 (7482)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Parma Permavg 21.6¢	$75.28	$0.17	-$75.1	49% 268-278 (546)
VeryLucky888CTR	Parma Permavg 26.4¢	$168.49	$0.14	-$89.19	58% 47503-34297 (81800)

Flaznorp

Lokomotiv Kuban

Invested

$1,432.99

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$199.88

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

stepanka1234

Lokomotiv Kuban

Invested

$691.44

Value

$784.94

PnL

+$93.5

Record

76%

64-20 (84)

dips.<$100

Lokomotiv Kuban

Invested

$19.4

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$0.59

Record

47%

11022-12642 (23664)

sentrioCTR<$100

Parma Perm

Invested

$16.09

Value

$14.61

PnL

-$1.84

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

38791873984189

Lokomotiv Kuban

Invested

$432.8

Value

$7.28

PnL

-$8.68

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

lryyy<$100

Lokomotiv Kuban

Invested

$3.33

Value

$3.7

PnL

+$0.37

Record

47%

9568-10685 (20253)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Parma Perm

Invested

$8.14

Value

$2.08

PnL

-$6.06

Record

50%

21550-21844 (43394)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Parma Perm

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.85

PnL

+$0.05

Record

59%

33226-23391 (56617)

Bagwell306CTR

Parma Perm

Invested

$189.31

Value

$0.34

PnL

-$188.97

Record

57%

4276-3206 (7482)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Parma Perm

Invested

$75.28

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$75.1

Record

49%

268-278 (546)

VeryLucky888CTR

Parma Perm

Invested

$168.49

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$89.19

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

Research grade

AvoidLokomotiv Kuban at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Lokomotiv Kuban

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Lokomotiv Kuban. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpLokomotiv Kuban 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrParma Perm 83% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedParma Perm 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Parma Perm 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lokomotiv Kuban wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.