Enisey Krasnoyarsk vs. Uralmash

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Uralmash (36%) · Uralmash at 73¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 21

Enisey Krasnoyarsk28¢Uralmash72¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Uralmash

Consensus Traders

Uralmash 36%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$39.65

Smart Money Entry

68.7¢ → 72.5¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUralmash at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Uralmash

4 of 11 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Enisey Krasnoyarsk28%

Uralmash73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Uralmash4 traders

Total Value$730.7

Total Shares1,054

Combined PnL+$6.5

Enisey Krasnoyarsk7 traders

Total Value$165.21

Total Shares656

Combined PnL-$46.15

Uralmash — 36%Enisey Krasnoyarsk — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Uralmash. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUralmash 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrEnisey Krasnoyarsk 86% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Enisey Krasnoyarsk 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Uralmashavg 69.2¢	$417.5	$397.87	-$19.63	49% 3769-3940 (7709)
└ Uralmash leg	Uralmashavg 69.2¢	$228.55	$247.71	+$19.16
└ Enisey Krasnoyarsk leg	Enisey Krasnoyarskavg 31.5¢	$188.96	$150.16	-$38.79
ST stepanka1234	Uralmashavg 64.8¢	$347.95	$343.69	-$4.26	— 8-8 (16)
CI cigarettes	Uralmashavg 73¢	$231.3	$237.64	+$6.34	53% 7024-6169 (13193)
38 38791873984189	Uralmashavg 72.5¢	$141.15	$146.09	+$4.94	48% 3192-3494 (6686)
ARTEM-DZYUBAARB<$100	Uralmashavg 58.2¢	$73	$74.93	+$1.93	82% 693-149 (842)
└ Uralmash leg	Uralmashavg 58.2¢	$37.82	$48.7	+$10.88
└ Enisey Krasnoyarsk leg	Enisey Krasnoyarskavg 33.5¢	$35.18	$26.23	-$8.95
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Enisey Krasnoyarskavg 50¢	$628	$67.76	-$26.89	69% 131-59 (190)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Enisey Krasnoyarskavg 27.8¢	$40.04	$35.97	-$4.07	43% 178-237 (415)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Enisey Krasnoyarskavg 32¢	$36.52	$28.53	-$7.99	18% 31-144 (175)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Enisey Krasnoyarskavg 25¢	$11.23	$12.35	+$1.12	38% 530-872 (1402)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100	Enisey Krasnoyarskavg 37¢	$12.95	$8.75	-$4.2	46% 132-155 (287)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Enisey Krasnoyarskavg 35.7¢	$11.86	$8.3	-$3.56	42% 979-1345 (2324)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Enisey Krasnoyarskavg 29¢	$4.11	$3.54	-$0.57	48% 2045-2201 (4246)
SU suntori<$100	Uralmashavg 74¢	$3.8	$3.29	-$0.51	46% 2546-3015 (5561)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Uralmash

Invested

$417.5

Value

$397.87

PnL

-$19.63

Record

49%

3769-3940 (7709)

Both legs:

Uralmash$228.5569.2¢+$19.16

Enisey Krasnoyarsk$188.9631.5¢-$38.79

stepanka1234

Uralmash

Invested

$347.95

Value

$343.69

PnL

-$4.26

Record

—

8-8 (16)

cigarettes

Uralmash

Invested

$231.3

Value

$237.64

PnL

+$6.34

Record

53%

7024-6169 (13193)

38791873984189

Uralmash

Invested

$141.15

Value

$146.09

PnL

+$4.94

Record

48%

3192-3494 (6686)

ARTEM-DZYUBAARB<$100

Uralmash

Invested

$73

Value

$74.93

PnL

+$1.93

Record

82%

693-149 (842)

Both legs:

Uralmash$37.8258.2¢+$10.88

Enisey Krasnoyarsk$35.1833.5¢-$8.95

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Enisey Krasnoyarsk

Invested

$628

Value

$67.76

PnL

-$26.89

Record

69%

131-59 (190)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Enisey Krasnoyarsk

Invested

$40.04

Value

$35.97

PnL

-$4.07

Record

43%

178-237 (415)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Enisey Krasnoyarsk

Invested

$36.52

Value

$28.53

PnL

-$7.99

Record

18%

31-144 (175)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Enisey Krasnoyarsk

Invested

$11.23

Value

$12.35

PnL

+$1.12

Record

38%

530-872 (1402)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100

Enisey Krasnoyarsk

Invested

$12.95

Value

$8.75

PnL

-$4.2

Record

46%

132-155 (287)

sentrioCTR<$100

Enisey Krasnoyarsk

Invested

$11.86

Value

$8.3

PnL

-$3.56

Record

42%

979-1345 (2324)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Enisey Krasnoyarsk

Invested

$4.11

Value

$3.54

PnL

-$0.57

Record

48%

2045-2201 (4246)

suntori<$100

Uralmash

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.29

PnL

-$0.51

Record

46%

2546-3015 (5561)

Research grade

AvoidUralmash at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Uralmash

4 of 11 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Uralmash. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUralmash 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrEnisey Krasnoyarsk 86% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Enisey Krasnoyarsk 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Uralmash wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.