CSKA Moscow vs. BC Zenit
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold CSKA Moscow (50%) · CSKA Moscow at 80¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
CSKA Moscow
6
CSKA Moscow 50%
$5.1K
$65.05
76.7¢ → 80¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidCSKA Moscow at 80%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Mature
15h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on CSKA Moscow. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST stepanka1234 | CSKA Moscowavg 76.6¢ | $3.4K | $3.5K | +$128.08 | 76% 65-20 (85) |
BA Bagwell306CTR | BC Zenitavg 24.8¢ | $813.06 | $754.1 | -$58.96 | 57% 4276-3206 (7482) |
FL Flaznorp | CSKA Moscowavg 77.6¢ | $587.58 | $612.02 | +$24.44 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
SE sentrio | CSKA Moscowavg 77.1¢ | $140.49 | $141.65 | +$1.16 | 50% 26504-26107 (52611) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | BC Zenitavg 26¢ | $78 | $69 | -$18 | 58% 47503-34297 (81800) |
BA BayupatiCTR<$100 | BC Zenitavg 27.1¢ | $77.62 | $65.95 | -$11.67 | 49% 268-278 (546) |
Invested
$3,354.05
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$128.08
Record
76%
65-20 (85)
Invested
$813.06
Value
$754.1
PnL
-$58.96
Record
57%
4276-3206 (7482)
Invested
$587.58
Value
$612.02
PnL
+$24.44
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$140.49
Value
$141.65
PnL
+$1.16
Record
50%
26504-26107 (52611)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$78
Value
$69
PnL
-$18
Record
58%
47503-34297 (81800)
Invested
$77.62
Value
$65.95
PnL
-$11.67
Record
49%
268-278 (546)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.