Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Scaligera Basket Verona, while the market favors Virtus Bologna (92%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Virtus Bologna vs. Scaligera Basket Verona

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Scaligera Basket Verona (67%) · Scaligera Basket Verona at 8.0¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 16

Virtus Bologna92¢Scaligera Basket Verona8¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Scaligera Basket Verona

Consensus Traders

Scaligera Basket Verona 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$62.17

Smart Money Entry

12.7¢ → 8¢

-37% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidScaligera Basket Verona at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Scaligera Basket Verona

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Virtus Bologna 92%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Virtus Bologna92%

Scaligera Basket Verona8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Scaligera Basket Verona4 traders

Total Value$473.1

Total Shares2,248

Combined PnL+$58.3

Virtus Bologna2 traders

Total Value$82.18

Total Shares87

Combined PnL+$3.87

Scaligera Basket Verona — 67%Virtus Bologna — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Scaligera Basket Verona. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Scaligera Basket Verona 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Virtus Bolognaavg 83.3¢	$589.23	$624.59	+$35.36	—
└ Virtus Bologna leg	Virtus Bolognaavg 83.3¢	$460.64	$483.58	+$22.94
└ Scaligera Basket Verona leg	Scaligera Basket Veronaavg 11.4¢	$128.59	$141.01	+$12.42
SN SnakeBallCTR	Scaligera Basket Veronaavg 11¢	$268.53	$274.64	+$6.11	—
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Scaligera Basket Veronaavg 15¢	$894.03	$187.75	+$53.74	—
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Scaligera Basket Veronaavg 22¢	$90.22	$96.8	+$6.58	—
└ Scaligera Basket Verona leg	Scaligera Basket Veronaavg 22¢	$67.71	$73.99	+$6.28
└ Virtus Bologna leg	Virtus Bolognaavg 87¢	$26.11	$22.81	+$0.3
SE sentrio<$100	Virtus Bolognaavg 85.9¢	$63.71	$65.78	+$2.07	—
tradecraft<$100	Virtus Bolognaavg 86¢	$14.6	$16.4	+$1.8	—
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Scaligera Basket Veronaavg 14¢	$8.89	$7.85	-$1.03	—
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Scaligera Basket Veronaavg 15¢	$3.37	$2.85	-$0.52	—

FlaznorpARB<$100

Virtus Bologna

Invested

$589.23

Value

$624.59

PnL

+$35.36

Record

—

Both legs:

Virtus Bologna$460.6483.3¢+$22.94

Scaligera Basket Verona$128.5911.4¢+$12.42

SnakeBallCTR

Scaligera Basket Verona

Invested

$268.53

Value

$274.64

PnL

+$6.11

Record

—

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Scaligera Basket Verona

Invested

$894.03

Value

$187.75

PnL

+$53.74

Record

—

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Scaligera Basket Verona

Invested

$90.22

Value

$96.8

PnL

+$6.58

Record

—

Both legs:

Scaligera Basket Verona$67.7122¢+$6.28

Virtus Bologna$26.1187¢+$0.3

sentrio<$100

Virtus Bologna

Invested

$63.71

Value

$65.78

PnL

+$2.07

Record

—

tradecraft<$100

Virtus Bologna

Invested

$14.6

Value

$16.4

PnL

+$1.8

Record

—

VenusianCTR<$100

Scaligera Basket Verona

Invested

$8.89

Value

$7.85

PnL

-$1.03

Record

—

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Scaligera Basket Verona

Invested

$3.37

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$0.52

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidScaligera Basket Verona at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Scaligera Basket Verona

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Virtus Bologna 92%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Scaligera Basket Verona. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Scaligera Basket Verona 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Scaligera Basket Verona wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.4%

8.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$962.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

1062.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.