Universo Treviso Basket vs. Scafati Basket

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Universo Treviso Basket (50%) · Universo Treviso Basket at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 22

Universo Treviso Basket>99¢Scafati Basket<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Universo Treviso Basket

Consensus Traders

Universo Treviso Basket 50%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$89.43

Smart Money Entry

92.2¢ → 100¢

+8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUniverso Treviso Basket at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Universo Treviso Basket

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Universo Treviso Basket100%

Scafati Basket0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Universo Treviso Basket4 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,366

Combined PnL-$41.39

Scafati Basket4 traders

Total Value$290.39

Total Shares1,421

Combined PnL-$48.03

Universo Treviso Basket — 50%Scafati Basket — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Universo Treviso Basket. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUniverso Treviso Basket 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrScafati Basket 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Universo Treviso Basket 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Universo Treviso Basketavg 88¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$63.31	47% 1204-1385 (2589)
FL Flaznorp	Universo Treviso Basketavg 95.2¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$105.64	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
LO looppau	Universo Treviso Basketavg 99.9¢	$499.5	$499.75	+$0.25	99% 845-2 (847)
NO NotJumpCTR	Scafati Basketavg 36.4¢	$542	$277.53	-$39.97	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Scafati Basketavg 2.5¢	$18.47	$12.7	-$5.77	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Universo Treviso Basketavg 93¢	$9.3	$9.99	+$0.69	48% 2576-2780 (5356)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Scafati Basketavg 18¢	$1.8	$0.13	-$1.67	41% 744-1054 (1798)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Scafati Basketavg 1.3¢	$0.65	$0.03	-$0.63	53% 7546-6651 (14197)

SnakeBall

Universo Treviso Basket

Invested

$1,671.36

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$63.31

Record

47%

1204-1385 (2589)

Flaznorp

Universo Treviso Basket

Invested

$1,251.3

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$105.64

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

looppau

Universo Treviso Basket

Invested

$499.5

Value

$499.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

99%

845-2 (847)

NotJumpCTR

Scafati Basket

Invested

$542

Value

$277.53

PnL

-$39.97

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Scafati Basket

Invested

$18.47

Value

$12.7

PnL

-$5.77

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

ferdinand2<$100

Universo Treviso Basket

Invested

$9.3

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$0.69

Record

48%

2576-2780 (5356)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Scafati Basket

Invested

$1.8

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$1.67

Record

41%

744-1054 (1798)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Scafati Basket

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.63

Record

53%

7546-6651 (14197)

Research grade

AvoidUniverso Treviso Basket at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Universo Treviso Basket

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Universo Treviso Basket. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUniverso Treviso Basket 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrScafati Basket 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Universo Treviso Basket 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Universo Treviso Basket wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.