Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Scafati Basket, while the market favors Napoli Basketball (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Scafati Basket vs. Napoli Basketball
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Scafati Basket (60%) · Scafati Basket at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
Scafati Basket
5
Scafati Basket 60%
$1.2K
$655.38
61¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidScafati Basket at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Napoli Basketball 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Scafati Basket. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Scafati Basketavg 88.2¢ | $764.08 | $526.65 | +$292.51 | 46% 2024-2378 (4402) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Scafati Basketavg 39.7¢ | $303.29 | $287.07 | +$166.74 | 51% 47280-44570 (91850) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Scafati Basketavg 61¢ | $305.34 | $225.27 | +$149.88 | 50% 23482-23489 (46971) |
LO looppau | Napoli Basketballavg 99.9¢ | $113.17 | $113.11 | +$0.06 | 99% 15876-133 (16009) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Napoli Basketballavg 12.6¢ | $52.86 | $52.84 | +$46.19 | 48% 70290-75979 (146269) |
Invested
$764.08
Value
$526.65
PnL
+$292.51
Record
46%
2024-2378 (4402)
Invested
$303.29
Value
$287.07
PnL
+$166.74
Record
51%
47280-44570 (91850)
Invested
$305.34
Value
$225.27
PnL
+$149.88
Record
50%
23482-23489 (46971)
Invested
$113.17
Value
$113.11
PnL
+$0.06
Record
99%
15876-133 (16009)
Invested
$52.86
Value
$52.84
PnL
+$46.19
Record
48%
70290-75979 (146269)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.