Pallacanestro Reggiana vs. Pallacanestro Varese

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Pallacanestro Varese (57%) · Pallacanestro Varese at 77¢ · $572 held · ends Nov 21

Pallacanestro Reggiana24¢Pallacanestro Varese76¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pallacanestro Varese

Consensus Traders

Pallacanestro Varese 57%

Total Value

$571.82

Combined PnL

$2.07

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 76.5¢

+52% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidPallacanestro Varese at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pallacanestro Varese

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pallacanestro Reggiana24%

Pallacanestro Varese77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pallacanestro Varese4 traders

Total Value$538.7

Total Shares571

Combined PnL-$2.25

Pallacanestro Reggiana3 traders

Total Value$33.12

Total Shares122

Combined PnL+$4.31

Pallacanestro Varese — 57%Pallacanestro Reggiana — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJump	Pallacanestro Vareseavg 50¢	$525	$501.97	+$0.49	51% 850-801 (1651)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Pallacanestro Reggianaavg 24¢	$23.52	$23.03	-$0.49	43% 185-243 (428)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Pallacanestro Vareseavg 71¢	$27.2	$21.68	-$5.52	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Pallacanestro Reggianaavg 28.3¢	$15.56	$8.86	+$5.03	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Pallacanestro Vareseavg 50¢	$6.39	$8.3	+$1.91	83% 746-157 (903)
tradecraft<$100	Pallacanestro Vareseavg 37¢	$5.87	$6.75	+$0.87	31% 355-790 (1145)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Pallacanestro Reggianaavg 29¢	$1.45	$1.23	-$0.22	48% 2157-2304 (4461)

NotJump

Pallacanestro Varese

Invested

$525

Value

$501.97

PnL

+$0.49

Record

51%

850-801 (1651)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Pallacanestro Reggiana

Invested

$23.52

Value

$23.03

PnL

-$0.49

Record

43%

185-243 (428)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Pallacanestro Varese

Invested

$27.2

Value

$21.68

PnL

-$5.52

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Pallacanestro Reggiana

Invested

$15.56

Value

$8.86

PnL

+$5.03

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Pallacanestro Varese

Invested

$6.39

Value

$8.3

PnL

+$1.91

Record

83%

746-157 (903)

tradecraft<$100

Pallacanestro Varese

Invested

$5.87

Value

$6.75

PnL

+$0.87

Record

31%

355-790 (1145)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Pallacanestro Reggiana

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.23

PnL

-$0.22

Record

48%

2157-2304 (4461)

Research grade

AvoidPallacanestro Varese at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Pallacanestro Varese

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pallacanestro Varese wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.