Pallacanestro Cantu vs. Derthona Basket

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Derthona Basket (75%) · Derthona Basket at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 22

Pallacanestro Cantu<1¢Derthona Basket>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Derthona Basket

Consensus Traders

Derthona Basket 75%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$50.55

Smart Money Entry

65.6¢ → 100¢

+52% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidDerthona Basket at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Derthona Basket

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pallacanestro Cantu0%

Derthona Basket100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Derthona Basket9 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,080

Combined PnL+$275.22

Pallacanestro Cantu3 traders

Total Value$440.99

Total Shares1,554

Combined PnL-$325.77

Derthona Basket — 75%Pallacanestro Cantu — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on Derthona Basket. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDerthona Basket 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDerthona Basket 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Derthona Basket 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Derthona Basketavg 64.6¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$46.04	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Derthona Basketavg 68.7¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$192.98	41% 744-1054 (1798)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Pallacanestro Cantuavg 29.6¢	$764.48	$440.96	-$323.53	47% 1204-1385 (2589)
poshposh	Derthona Basketavg 72.4¢	$109.1	$142.12	+$33.02	49% 1349-1428 (2777)
LR lryyy<$100	Derthona Basketavg 22¢	$28.82	$87.97	+$59.15	46% 998-1194 (2192)
dips.<$100	Derthona Basketavg 66¢	$39.53	$54.83	+$15.52	48% 1314-1407 (2721)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Derthona Basketavg 70¢	$35.2	$40	+$4.8	83% 991-206 (1197)
CI cigarettes<$100	Derthona Basketavg 67¢	$19.42	$28.97	+$9.55	53% 7546-6651 (14197)
alpheclabs2<$100	Derthona Basketavg 79¢	$13.28	$16.8	+$3.52	45% 373-460 (833)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Derthona Basketavg 75.9¢	$13.28	$10	+$2.72	48% 2576-2780 (5356)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Pallacanestro Cantuavg 2¢	$34.88	$0.02	+$10.3	46% 888-1048 (1936)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Pallacanestro Cantuavg 38¢	$12.56	$0.02	-$12.55	50% 2863-2911 (5774)

Flaznorp

Derthona Basket

Invested

$1,501.94

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$46.04

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Derthona Basket

Invested

$1,088.92

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$192.98

Record

41%

744-1054 (1798)

SnakeBallCTR

Pallacanestro Cantu

Invested

$764.48

Value

$440.96

PnL

-$323.53

Record

47%

1204-1385 (2589)

poshposh

Derthona Basket

Invested

$109.1

Value

$142.12

PnL

+$33.02

Record

49%

1349-1428 (2777)

lryyy<$100

Derthona Basket

Invested

$28.82

Value

$87.97

PnL

+$59.15

Record

46%

998-1194 (2192)

dips.<$100

Derthona Basket

Invested

$39.53

Value

$54.83

PnL

+$15.52

Record

48%

1314-1407 (2721)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Derthona Basket

Invested

$35.2

Value

$40

PnL

+$4.8

Record

83%

991-206 (1197)

cigarettes<$100

Derthona Basket

Invested

$19.42

Value

$28.97

PnL

+$9.55

Record

53%

7546-6651 (14197)

alpheclabs2<$100

Derthona Basket

Invested

$13.28

Value

$16.8

PnL

+$3.52

Record

45%

373-460 (833)

ferdinand2<$100

Derthona Basket

Invested

$13.28

Value

$10

PnL

+$2.72

Record

48%

2576-2780 (5356)

smithagentCTR<$100

Pallacanestro Cantu

Invested

$34.88

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$10.3

Record

46%

888-1048 (1936)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Pallacanestro Cantu

Invested

$12.56

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$12.55

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

Research grade

AvoidDerthona Basket at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Derthona Basket

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

82% of non-arb traders are on Derthona Basket. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpDerthona Basket 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrDerthona Basket 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Derthona Basket 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Derthona Basket wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.