Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Napoli Basketball, while the market favors Pallacanestro Trieste (61%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Napoli Basketball vs. Pallacanestro Trieste

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Napoli Basketball (40%) · Napoli Basketball at 40¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 22

Napoli Basketball40¢Pallacanestro Trieste60¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Napoli Basketball

Consensus Traders

Napoli Basketball 40%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

$68.03

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 39.5¢

-22% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNapoli Basketball at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Napoli Basketball

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Pallacanestro Trieste 61%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Napoli Basketball40%

Pallacanestro Trieste61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Napoli Basketball4 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares8,330

Combined PnL+$51.51

Pallacanestro Trieste6 traders

Total Value$688.24

Total Shares843

Combined PnL+$16.52

Napoli Basketball — 40%Pallacanestro Trieste — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Napoli Basketballavg 51¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$66.18	50% 2851-2894 (5745)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Pallacanestro Triesteavg 66.3¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$227.66	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
└ Pallacanestro Trieste leg	Pallacanestro Triesteavg 66.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$39.19
└ Napoli Basketball leg	Napoli Basketballavg 44.7¢	$968.61	$780.13	-$188.48
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Napoli Basketballavg 51¢	$968.36	$958.86	-$9.49	41% 166-237 (403)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Napoli Basketballavg 30.2¢	$508.99	$455.18	+$5.39	46% 643-756 (1399)
└ Napoli Basketball leg	Napoli Basketballavg 30.2¢	$324.02	$322.18	+$1.54
└ Pallacanestro Trieste leg	Pallacanestro Triesteavg 68¢	$129.15	$133	+$3.85
NO NotJump	Pallacanestro Triesteavg 50¢	$1.1K	$241.94	-$69.53	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
CI cigarettes	Pallacanestro Triesteavg 62.2¢	$155.5	$198.75	+$43.25	53% 7499-6626 (14125)
poshposh	Pallacanestro Triesteavg 61¢	$85.06	$115.39	+$30.33	49% 1336-1411 (2747)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Napoli Basketballavg 64.6¢	$97.42	$83.38	-$14.05	47% 1199-1376 (2575)
└ Napoli Basketball leg	Napoli Basketballavg 64.6¢	$84.12	$57.92	-$26.2
└ Pallacanestro Trieste leg	Pallacanestro Triesteavg 29¢	$13.3	$25.46	+$12.16
ARTEM-DZYUBAARB<$100	Pallacanestro Triesteavg 64.5¢	$88.74	$81.55	-$7.19	83% 978-205 (1183)
└ Pallacanestro Trieste leg	Pallacanestro Triesteavg 64.5¢	$51.6	$55.2	+$3.6
└ Napoli Basketball leg	Napoli Basketballavg 43.7¢	$37.14	$26.35	-$10.79
LR lryyy<$100	Pallacanestro Triesteavg 50¢	$55	$59.95	+$4.95	45% 984-1181 (2165)
38 38791873984189<$100	Pallacanestro Triesteavg 78¢	$57.94	$58.15	+$0.21	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
VE Venusian<$100	Pallacanestro Triesteavg 24¢	$6.75	$14.06	+$7.31	38% 1354-2217 (3571)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Napoli Basketballavg 38.4¢	$27.69	$7.33	-$5.91	48% 2555-2763 (5318)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Napoli Basketballavg 4.9¢	$0.64	$1.37	+$0.72	38% 496-823 (1319)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Napoli Basketball

Invested

$3,267.14

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$66.18

Record

50%

2851-2894 (5745)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Pallacanestro Trieste

Invested

$2,106.01

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$227.66

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

Both legs:

Pallacanestro Trieste$1,137.466.3¢-$39.19

Napoli Basketball$968.6144.7¢-$188.48

mouzsynapseCTR

Napoli Basketball

Invested

$968.36

Value

$958.86

PnL

-$9.49

Record

41%

166-237 (403)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Napoli Basketball

Invested

$508.99

Value

$455.18

PnL

+$5.39

Record

46%

643-756 (1399)

Both legs:

Napoli Basketball$324.0230.2¢+$1.54

Pallacanestro Trieste$129.1568¢+$3.85

NotJump

Pallacanestro Trieste

Invested

$1,100.19

Value

$241.94

PnL

-$69.53

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

cigarettes

Pallacanestro Trieste

Invested

$155.5

Value

$198.75

PnL

+$43.25

Record

53%

7499-6626 (14125)

poshposh

Pallacanestro Trieste

Invested

$85.06

Value

$115.39

PnL

+$30.33

Record

49%

1336-1411 (2747)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Napoli Basketball

Invested

$97.42

Value

$83.38

PnL

-$14.05

Record

47%

1199-1376 (2575)

Both legs:

Napoli Basketball$84.1264.6¢-$26.2

Pallacanestro Trieste$13.329¢+$12.16

ARTEM-DZYUBAARB<$100

Pallacanestro Trieste

Invested

$88.74

Value

$81.55

PnL

-$7.19

Record

83%

978-205 (1183)

Both legs:

Pallacanestro Trieste$51.664.5¢+$3.6

Napoli Basketball$37.1443.7¢-$10.79

lryyy<$100

Pallacanestro Trieste

Invested

$55

Value

$59.95

PnL

+$4.95

Record

45%

984-1181 (2165)

38791873984189<$100

Pallacanestro Trieste

Invested

$57.94

Value

$58.15

PnL

+$0.21

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

Venusian<$100

Pallacanestro Trieste

Invested

$6.75

Value

$14.06

PnL

+$7.31

Record

38%

1354-2217 (3571)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Napoli Basketball

Invested

$27.69

Value

$7.33

PnL

-$5.91

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Napoli Basketball

Invested

$0.64

Value

$1.37

PnL

+$0.72

Record

38%

496-823 (1319)

Research grade

AvoidNapoli Basketball at 40%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Napoli Basketball

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Pallacanestro Trieste 61%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Napoli Basketball wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.7%

39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$139.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

239.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.