Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Amici Pallacanestro Udinese, while the market favors Olimpia Milano (74%). 7 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Amici Pallacanestro Udinese vs. Olimpia Milano

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Amici Pallacanestro Udinese (70%) · Amici Pallacanestro Udinese at 27¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 22

Amici Pallacanestro Udinese27¢Olimpia Milano73¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Amici Pallacanestro Udinese

Consensus Traders

Amici Pallacanestro Udinese 70%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$155.66

Smart Money Entry

27.1¢ → 26.5¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidAmici Pallacanestro Udinese at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Amici Pallacanestro Udinese

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Olimpia Milano 74%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Amici Pallacanestro Udinese27%

Olimpia Milano74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Amici Pallacanestro Udinese7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares4,090

Combined PnL+$145.34

Olimpia Milano3 traders

Total Value$248.9

Total Shares339

Combined PnL+$10.33

Amici Pallacanestro Udinese — 70%Olimpia Milano — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Amici Pallacanestro Udinese. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAmici Pallacanestro Udinese 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Amici Pallacanestro Udinese 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Amici Pallacanestro Udineseavg 26.8¢	$404.59	$445.07	+$40.47	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Amici Pallacanestro Udineseavg 29¢	$232	$236	+$4	30% 486-1128 (1614)
OM omnibus-076daa	Olimpia Milanoavg 71¢	$216.66	$224.29	+$7.63	46% 621-730 (1351)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Amici Pallacanestro Udineseavg 26¢	$186.53	$211.64	+$25.11	35% 628-1146 (1774)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Amici Pallacanestro Udineseavg 27¢	$120.57	$131.73	+$11.16	47% 1186-1358 (2544)
38 38791873984189CTR	Amici Pallacanestro Udineseavg 26.5¢	$289	$88.79	+$65.23	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Amici Pallacanestro Udineseavg 26.6¢	$83.87	$83.49	-$0.37	41% 1173-1667 (2840)
BA Bayupati<$100	Olimpia Milanoavg 65¢	$16.06	$18.04	+$1.98	20% 40-164 (204)
BA Bagwell306<$100	Olimpia Milanoavg 65¢	$5.85	$6.57	+$0.72	37% 93-159 (252)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Amici Pallacanestro Udineseavg 28¢	$3.74	$3.47	-$0.27	37% 1333-2226 (3559)

FlaznorpCTR

Amici Pallacanestro Udinese

Invested

$404.59

Value

$445.07

PnL

+$40.47

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Amici Pallacanestro Udinese

Invested

$232

Value

$236

PnL

+$4

Record

30%

486-1128 (1614)

omnibus-076daa

Olimpia Milano

Invested

$216.66

Value

$224.29

PnL

+$7.63

Record

46%

621-730 (1351)

LuckyLooCTR

Amici Pallacanestro Udinese

Invested

$186.53

Value

$211.64

PnL

+$25.11

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

SnakeBallCTR

Amici Pallacanestro Udinese

Invested

$120.57

Value

$131.73

PnL

+$11.16

Record

47%

1186-1358 (2544)

38791873984189CTR

Amici Pallacanestro Udinese

Invested

$289

Value

$88.79

PnL

+$65.23

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

sentrioCTR<$100

Amici Pallacanestro Udinese

Invested

$83.87

Value

$83.49

PnL

-$0.37

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

Bayupati<$100

Olimpia Milano

Invested

$16.06

Value

$18.04

PnL

+$1.98

Record

20%

40-164 (204)

Bagwell306<$100

Olimpia Milano

Invested

$5.85

Value

$6.57

PnL

+$0.72

Record

37%

93-159 (252)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Amici Pallacanestro Udinese

Invested

$3.74

Value

$3.47

PnL

-$0.27

Record

37%

1333-2226 (3559)

Research grade

AvoidAmici Pallacanestro Udinese at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Amici Pallacanestro Udinese

7 of 10 top traders (70%)Underdog side (market favors Olimpia Milano 74%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Amici Pallacanestro Udinese. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrAmici Pallacanestro Udinese 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Amici Pallacanestro Udinese 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Amici Pallacanestro Udinese wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.