Sydney Kings vs. New Zealand Breakers

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Sydney Kings (44%) · Sydney Kings at 83¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 22

Sydney Kings83¢New Zealand Breakers17¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Sydney Kings

Consensus Traders

Sydney Kings 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$40.33

Smart Money Entry

78.3¢ → 82.5¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidSydney Kings at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sydney Kings

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Sydney Kings83%

New Zealand Breakers18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sydney Kings4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,261

Combined PnL+$41.63

New Zealand Breakers5 traders

Total Value$45.58

Total Shares256

Combined PnL-$1.31

Sydney Kings — 44%New Zealand Breakers — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Sydney Kingsavg 79.6¢	$875.33	$890.58	+$15.25	47% 1088-1236 (2324)
└ Sydney Kings leg	Sydney Kingsavg 79.6¢	$554.82	$575.33	+$20.51
└ New Zealand Breakers leg	New Zealand Breakersavg 17.8¢	$320.51	$315.26	-$5.26
probability	Sydney Kingsavg 75.7¢	$451.69	$489.13	+$37.43	51% 33-32 (65)
VI vibing123	Sydney Kingsavg 81¢	$291.6	$289.8	-$1.8	62% 1161-712 (1873)
VeryLucky888	Sydney Kingsavg 80¢	$246.68	$246	+$6	54% 1691-1455 (3146)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	New Zealand Breakersavg 18¢	$16.95	$16.48	-$0.47	38% 1223-2021 (3244)
NO NotradecopyCTR<$100	New Zealand Breakersavg 17¢	$10.02	$10.9	+$0.88	23% 61-201 (262)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	New Zealand Breakersavg 21¢	$10.35	$8.87	-$1.48	52% 187-175 (362)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	New Zealand Breakersavg 18¢	$8.67	$8.43	-$0.24	38% 1210-2005 (3215)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Sydney Kingsavg 82¢	$4.09	$4.09	+$0	46% 568-669 (1237)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	New Zealand Breakersavg 18¢	$0.9	$0.9	-$0	49% 4352-4620 (8972)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Sydney Kings

Invested

$875.33

Value

$890.58

PnL

+$15.25

Record

47%

1088-1236 (2324)

Both legs:

Sydney Kings$554.8279.6¢+$20.51

New Zealand Breakers$320.5117.8¢-$5.26

probability

Sydney Kings

Invested

$451.69

Value

$489.13

PnL

+$37.43

Record

51%

33-32 (65)

vibing123

Sydney Kings

Invested

$291.6

Value

$289.8

PnL

-$1.8

Record

62%

1161-712 (1873)

VeryLucky888

Sydney Kings

Invested

$246.68

Value

$246

PnL

+$6

Record

54%

1691-1455 (3146)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

New Zealand Breakers

Invested

$16.95

Value

$16.48

PnL

-$0.47

Record

38%

1223-2021 (3244)

NotradecopyCTR<$100

New Zealand Breakers

Invested

$10.02

Value

$10.9

PnL

+$0.88

Record

23%

61-201 (262)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

New Zealand Breakers

Invested

$10.35

Value

$8.87

PnL

-$1.48

Record

52%

187-175 (362)

VenusianCTR<$100

New Zealand Breakers

Invested

$8.67

Value

$8.43

PnL

-$0.24

Record

38%

1210-2005 (3215)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Sydney Kings

Invested

$4.09

Value

$4.09

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

568-669 (1237)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

New Zealand Breakers

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

4352-4620 (8972)

Research grade

AvoidSydney Kings at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Sydney Kings

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sydney Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.