Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Tasmania JackJumpers, while the market favors Perth Wildcats (61%). 8 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Perth Wildcats vs. Tasmania JackJumpers

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Tasmania JackJumpers (62%) · Tasmania JackJumpers at 39¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 19

Perth Wildcats61¢Tasmania JackJumpers39¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Tasmania JackJumpers

Consensus Traders

Tasmania JackJumpers 62%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$51.72

Smart Money Entry

42.4¢ → 39¢

-8% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidTasmania JackJumpers at 39%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tasmania JackJumpers

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Perth Wildcats 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Perth Wildcats61%

Tasmania JackJumpers39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tasmania JackJumpers8 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,846

Combined PnL+$15.05

Perth Wildcats5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,538

Combined PnL+$36.67

Tasmania JackJumpers — 62%Perth Wildcats — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Tasmania JackJumpersavg 42¢	$767.44	$776.57	+$9.14	42% 64-89 (153)
SN SnakeBall	Perth Wildcatsavg 57¢	$721.84	$731.37	+$9.53	46% 433-502 (935)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Perth Wildcatsavg 57¢	$617.3	$633.57	+$16.27	51% 2503-2397 (4900)
└ Perth Wildcats leg	Perth Wildcatsavg 57¢	$365.17	$384.46	+$19.29
└ Tasmania JackJumpers leg	Tasmania JackJumpersavg 40.5¢	$252.13	$249.11	-$3.02
VE VenusianCTR	Tasmania JackJumpersavg 43.1¢	$227.47	$229.58	+$2.11	32% 528-1110 (1638)
MA MadridTime	Perth Wildcatsavg 49¢	$127.4	$143	+$15.6	33% 544-1092 (1636)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Tasmania JackJumpersavg 44¢	$92.86	$92.29	-$0.57	33% 541-1119 (1660)
VeryLucky888CTR	Tasmania JackJumpersavg 42.8¢	$185.32	$88.42	+$4.41	52% 737-689 (1426)
probability<$100	Perth Wildcatsavg 54¢	$71.82	$75.81	+$3.99	44% 11-14 (25)
MI mishipolis<$100	Perth Wildcatsavg 53.8¢	$50.75	$56.25	+$5.49	42% 87-119 (206)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Perth Wildcatsavg 50¢	$20.57	$22.63	+$2.06	39% 101-157 (258)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Tasmania JackJumpersavg 42.4¢	$20.17	$18.81	-$1.37	47% 1493-1672 (3165)
poshposhCTR<$100	Tasmania JackJumpersavg 41¢	$15.14	$16.61	+$1.47	47% 507-571 (1078)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Tasmania JackJumpersavg 48¢	$3.92	$3.51	-$0.41	41% 533-763 (1296)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Tasmania JackJumpersavg 41¢	$2.84	$3.12	+$0.28	53% 6071-5438 (11509)

mouzsynapseCTR

Tasmania JackJumpers

Invested

$767.44

Value

$776.57

PnL

+$9.14

Record

42%

64-89 (153)

SnakeBall

Perth Wildcats

Invested

$721.84

Value

$731.37

PnL

+$9.53

Record

46%

433-502 (935)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Perth Wildcats

Invested

$617.3

Value

$633.57

PnL

+$16.27

Record

51%

2503-2397 (4900)

Both legs:

Perth Wildcats$365.1757¢+$19.29

Tasmania JackJumpers$252.1340.5¢-$3.02

VenusianCTR

Tasmania JackJumpers

Invested

$227.47

Value

$229.58

PnL

+$2.11

Record

32%

528-1110 (1638)

MadridTime

Perth Wildcats

Invested

$127.4

Value

$143

PnL

+$15.6

Record

33%

544-1092 (1636)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Tasmania JackJumpers

Invested

$92.86

Value

$92.29

PnL

-$0.57

Record

33%

541-1119 (1660)

VeryLucky888CTR

Tasmania JackJumpers

Invested

$185.32

Value

$88.42

PnL

+$4.41

Record

52%

737-689 (1426)

probability<$100

Perth Wildcats

Invested

$71.82

Value

$75.81

PnL

+$3.99

Record

44%

11-14 (25)

mishipolis<$100

Perth Wildcats

Invested

$50.75

Value

$56.25

PnL

+$5.49

Record

42%

87-119 (206)

NatoAlfista<$100

Perth Wildcats

Invested

$20.57

Value

$22.63

PnL

+$2.06

Record

39%

101-157 (258)

suntoriCTR<$100

Tasmania JackJumpers

Invested

$20.17

Value

$18.81

PnL

-$1.37

Record

47%

1493-1672 (3165)

poshposhCTR<$100

Tasmania JackJumpers

Invested

$15.14

Value

$16.61

PnL

+$1.47

Record

47%

507-571 (1078)

sentrioCTR<$100

Tasmania JackJumpers

Invested

$3.92

Value

$3.51

PnL

-$0.41

Record

41%

533-763 (1296)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Tasmania JackJumpers

Invested

$2.84

Value

$3.12

PnL

+$0.28

Record

53%

6071-5438 (11509)

Research grade

AvoidTasmania JackJumpers at 39%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Tasmania JackJumpers

8 of 13 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Perth Wildcats 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tasmania JackJumpers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance41.2%

39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$142.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

242.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.