Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold New Zealand Breakers, while the market favors Melbourne United (50%). 0 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Melbourne United (-7.5)
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold New Zealand Breakers (86%) · New Zealand Breakers at 50¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
New Zealand Breakers
7
New Zealand Breakers 86%
$1.4K
-$272.75
44.4¢ → 50¢
+13% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNew Zealand Breakers at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Melbourne United 50%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on New Zealand Breakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | New Zealand Breakersavg 44.1¢ | $695.44 | $788.15 | -$301.37 | 51% 17604-16613 (34217) |
MO mouzsynapse | New Zealand Breakersavg 45¢ | $299.44 | $312.75 | +$13.31 | 37% 731-1227 (1958) |
FE ferdinand2 | New Zealand Breakersavg 44¢ | $134.91 | $144.11 | +$4.6 | 51% 991-958 (1949) |
 VeryLucky888 | New Zealand Breakersavg 44.8¢ | $200.59 | $83.2 | +$7.56 | 58% 43592-31705 (75297) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Melbourne Unitedavg 50.7¢ | $58.14 | $58.14 | -$1.34 | 50% 4008-3990 (7998) |
 HRTrading<$100 | New Zealand Breakersavg 44¢ | $28.27 | $30.2 | +$4.5 | 53% 6368-5753 (12121) |
SU suntori<$100 | New Zealand Breakersavg 47¢ | $29.52 | $29.52 | +$0 | 44% 6439-8045 (14484) |
Invested
$695.44
Value
$788.15
PnL
-$301.37
Record
51%
17604-16613 (34217)
Invested
$299.44
Value
$312.75
PnL
+$13.31
Record
37%
731-1227 (1958)
Invested
$134.91
Value
$144.11
PnL
+$4.6
Record
51%
991-958 (1949)
VeryLucky888Invested
$200.59
Value
$83.2
PnL
+$7.56
Record
58%
43592-31705 (75297)
Invested
$58.14
Value
$58.14
PnL
-$1.34
Record
50%
4008-3990 (7998)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$28.27
Value
$30.2
PnL
+$4.5
Record
53%
6368-5753 (12121)
Invested
$29.52
Value
$29.52
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
6439-8045 (14484)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Flaznorp
New Zealand Breakers — $788.15
mouzsynapse
New Zealand Breakers — $312.75
ferdinand2
New Zealand Breakers — $144.11
VeryLucky888
New Zealand Breakers — $83.2
NatoAlfista
Melbourne United — $58.14
HRTrading
New Zealand Breakers — $30.2
suntori
New Zealand Breakers — $29.52