Cairns Taipans vs. Sydney Kings

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Sydney Kings (38%) · Sydney Kings at 73¢ · $654 held · ends Nov 20

Cairns Taipans28¢Sydney Kings72¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Sydney Kings

Consensus Traders

Sydney Kings 38%

Total Value

$654.07

Combined PnL

$8.12

Smart Money Entry

74.4¢ → 72.5¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidSydney Kings at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sydney Kings

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cairns Taipans28%

Sydney Kings73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sydney Kings3 traders

Total Value$460.37

Total Shares631

Combined PnL-$8.91

Cairns Taipans5 traders

Total Value$193.7

Total Shares715

Combined PnL+$17.03

Sydney Kings — 38%Cairns Taipans — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Sydney Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Sydney Kings) and the top 1000 (7 on Cairns Taipans) disagree here.

ctrCairns Taipans 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedSydney Kings 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cairns Taipans 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Sydney Kingsavg 74.6¢	$270	$264.31	-$5.69	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
SE sentrio	Sydney Kingsavg 75¢	$122.64	$119.41	-$3.22	41% 589-849 (1438)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Cairns Taipansavg 24.5¢	$70.34	$77.47	+$7.13	33% 563-1169 (1732)
VeryLucky888<$100	Sydney Kingsavg 73¢	$76.65	$76.65	-$0	52% 813-742 (1555)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Cairns Taipansavg 26.7¢	$33.45	$34.42	+$0.97	33% 585-1187 (1772)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Cairns Taipansavg 24.1¢	$28.89	$32.33	+$3.44	34% 592-1164 (1756)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Cairns Taipansavg 24¢	$26.84	$30.19	+$3.35	12% 18-134 (152)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Cairns Taipansavg 24¢	$17.15	$19.29	+$2.14	32% 565-1192 (1757)

Flaznorp

Sydney Kings

Invested

$270

Value

$264.31

PnL

-$5.69

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

sentrio

Sydney Kings

Invested

$122.64

Value

$119.41

PnL

-$3.22

Record

41%

589-849 (1438)

LimousinCTR<$100

Cairns Taipans

Invested

$70.34

Value

$77.47

PnL

+$7.13

Record

33%

563-1169 (1732)

VeryLucky888<$100

Sydney Kings

Invested

$76.65

Value

$76.65

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

813-742 (1555)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Cairns Taipans

Invested

$33.45

Value

$34.42

PnL

+$0.97

Record

33%

585-1187 (1772)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Cairns Taipans

Invested

$28.89

Value

$32.33

PnL

+$3.44

Record

34%

592-1164 (1756)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Cairns Taipans

Invested

$26.84

Value

$30.19

PnL

+$3.35

Record

12%

18-134 (152)

VenusianCTR<$100

Cairns Taipans

Invested

$17.15

Value

$19.29

PnL

+$2.14

Record

32%

565-1192 (1757)

Research grade

AvoidSydney Kings at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Sydney Kings

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Sydney Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Sydney Kings) and the top 1000 (7 on Cairns Taipans) disagree here.

ctrCairns Taipans 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedSydney Kings 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cairns Taipans 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sydney Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.