Cairns Taipans vs. Illawarra Hawks
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Illawarra Hawks (83%) · Illawarra Hawks at 52¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Illawarra Hawks
6
Illawarra Hawks 83%
2 arb excluded
$6.0K
-$301.96
40.4¢ → 52¢
+29% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidIllawarra Hawks at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Illawarra Hawksavg 41.2¢ | $2.1K | $2.0K | -$96.98 | 46% 1524-1795 (3319) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Illawarra Hawksavg 40.3¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$32.28 | 51% 25600-24316 (49916) |
| └ Illawarra Hawks leg | Illawarra Hawksavg 40.3¢ | $1.0K | $953.62 | -$58.96 | |
| └ Cairns Taipans leg | Cairns Taipansavg 54.3¢ | $639.85 | $731.09 | +$91.24 | |
NO Notradecopy | Illawarra Hawksavg 39¢ | $953.79 | $868.19 | -$85.6 | 49% 4017-4231 (8248) |
GA GamblingAddict12345 | Illawarra Hawksavg 39¢ | $723.86 | $658.9 | -$64.96 | 50% 4023-3974 (7997) |
 tradecraftARB<$100 | Illawarra Hawksavg 40.8¢ | $266.87 | $276.66 | +$9.79 | 51% 6326-6110 (12436) |
| └ Illawarra Hawks leg | Illawarra Hawksavg 40.8¢ | $173.05 | $161.36 | -$11.69 | |
| └ Cairns Taipans leg | Cairns Taipansavg 50.4¢ | $93.82 | $115.3 | +$21.48 | |
PA panpidaras1 | Illawarra Hawksavg 44.4¢ | $242.11 | $236.01 | -$4.93 | 48% 263-280 (543) |
 VeryLucky888 | Illawarra Hawksavg 41.2¢ | $290.79 | $209.6 | -$35.35 | 58% 46317-33437 (79754) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Cairns Taipansavg 56.7¢ | $130.44 | $116.3 | -$14.14 | 50% 21104-21351 (42455) |
Invested
$2,059.34
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$96.98
Record
46%
1524-1795 (3319)
Invested
$1,652.44
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$32.28
Record
51%
25600-24316 (49916)
Both legs:
Invested
$953.79
Value
$868.19
PnL
-$85.6
Record
49%
4017-4231 (8248)
Invested
$723.86
Value
$658.9
PnL
-$64.96
Record
50%
4023-3974 (7997)
tradecraftARB<$100Invested
$266.87
Value
$276.66
PnL
+$9.79
Record
51%
6326-6110 (12436)
Both legs:
Invested
$242.11
Value
$236.01
PnL
-$4.93
Record
48%
263-280 (543)
VeryLucky888Invested
$290.79
Value
$209.6
PnL
-$35.35
Record
58%
46317-33437 (79754)
Invested
$130.44
Value
$116.3
PnL
-$14.14
Record
50%
21104-21351 (42455)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
Illawarra Hawks — $2.0K
Flaznorp
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Notradecopy
Illawarra Hawks — $868.19
GamblingAddict12345
Illawarra Hawks — $658.9
tradecraft
ARBArbitrage — excluded
panpidaras1
Illawarra Hawks — $236.01
VeryLucky888
Illawarra Hawks — $209.6
omnibus-076daa
CTRCairns Taipans — $116.3