Brisbane Bullets vs. Tasmania JackJumpers

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Brisbane Bullets (54%) · Brisbane Bullets at 56¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 22

Brisbane Bullets56¢Tasmania JackJumpers44¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Brisbane Bullets

Consensus Traders

Brisbane Bullets 54%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

$58.13

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 56¢

+14% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidBrisbane Bullets at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Brisbane Bullets

7 of 13 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Brisbane Bullets56%

Tasmania JackJumpers44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Brisbane Bullets7 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares6,870

Combined PnL+$24.28

Tasmania JackJumpers6 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,897

Combined PnL+$33.85

Brisbane Bullets — 54%Tasmania JackJumpers — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU QuentinChen	Brisbane Bulletsavg 48.9¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$33.18	6% 10-155 (165)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Tasmania JackJumpersavg 51¢	$1,000	$1.0K	+$19.61	56% 57-44 (101)
NO NotradecopyCTR	Tasmania JackJumpersavg 51¢	$1,000	$1.0K	+$19.61	24% 64-201 (265)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Brisbane Bulletsavg 46.1¢	$476.11	$490.87	+$14.76	49% 4528-4804 (9332)
└ Brisbane Bullets leg	Brisbane Bulletsavg 46.1¢	$267.1	$310.13	+$43.03
└ Tasmania JackJumpers leg	Tasmania JackJumpersavg 53.8¢	$209.01	$180.74	-$28.27
SN SnakeBallCTR	Tasmania JackJumpersavg 51¢	$386.28	$393.85	+$7.57	47% 1159-1312 (2471)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Tasmania JackJumpersavg 50¢	$256.4	$267.67	+$11.27	46% 597-711 (1308)
└ Tasmania JackJumpers leg	Tasmania JackJumpersavg 50¢	$159.65	$161.25	+$1.6
└ Brisbane Bullets leg	Brisbane Bulletsavg 45¢	$96.75	$106.43	+$9.67
SU suntori	Brisbane Bulletsavg 48.2¢	$250.5	$249.72	-$0.78	46% 3088-3615 (6703)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Brisbane Bulletsavg 51.8¢	$155.4	$148.42	-$6.97	50% 2792-2794 (5586)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Tasmania JackJumpersavg 53.8¢	$103.52	$90.38	-$13.14	41% 687-1000 (1687)
BI biying88888<$100	Brisbane Bulletsavg 50¢	$60	$58.8	-$1.2	44% 237-307 (544)
CI cigarettes<$100	Brisbane Bulletsavg 45¢	$22.49	$22.74	+$0.25	53% 7402-6535 (13937)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Tasmania JackJumpersavg 51¢	$10.41	$10.61	+$0.2	40% 151-226 (377)
SE sentrio<$100	Brisbane Bulletsavg 48.3¢	$9.64	$9.59	-$0.05	41% 1155-1643 (2798)
MA MadridTime<$100	Brisbane Bulletsavg 49¢	$7.2	$7.06	-$0.15	38% 1297-2114 (3411)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Tasmania JackJumpersavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.7	+$0	48% 2449-2682 (5131)

QuentinChen

Brisbane Bullets

Invested

$2,880.32

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$33.18

Record

10-155 (165)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Tasmania JackJumpers

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$19.61

Record

56%

57-44 (101)

NotradecopyCTR

Tasmania JackJumpers

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$19.61

Record

24%

64-201 (265)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Brisbane Bullets

Invested

$476.11

Value

$490.87

PnL

+$14.76

Record

49%

4528-4804 (9332)

Both legs:

Brisbane Bullets$267.146.1¢+$43.03

Tasmania JackJumpers$209.0153.8¢-$28.27

SnakeBallCTR

Tasmania JackJumpers

Invested

$386.28

Value

$393.85

PnL

+$7.57

Record

47%

1159-1312 (2471)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Tasmania JackJumpers

Invested

$256.4

Value

$267.67

PnL

+$11.27

Record

46%

597-711 (1308)

Both legs:

Tasmania JackJumpers$159.6550¢+$1.6

Brisbane Bullets$96.7545¢+$9.67

suntori

Brisbane Bullets

Invested

$250.5

Value

$249.72

PnL

-$0.78

Record

46%

3088-3615 (6703)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Brisbane Bullets

Invested

$155.4

Value

$148.42

PnL

-$6.97

Record

50%

2792-2794 (5586)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Tasmania JackJumpers

Invested

$103.52

Value

$90.38

PnL

-$13.14

Record

41%

687-1000 (1687)

biying88888<$100

Brisbane Bullets

Invested

$60

Value

$58.8

PnL

-$1.2

Record

44%

237-307 (544)

cigarettes<$100

Brisbane Bullets

Invested

$22.49

Value

$22.74

PnL

+$0.25

Record

53%

7402-6535 (13937)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Tasmania JackJumpers

Invested

$10.41

Value

$10.61

PnL

+$0.2

Record

40%

151-226 (377)

sentrio<$100

Brisbane Bullets

Invested

$9.64

Value

$9.59

PnL

-$0.05

Record

41%

1155-1643 (2798)

MadridTime<$100

Brisbane Bullets

Invested

$7.2

Value

$7.06

PnL

-$0.15

Record

38%

1297-2114 (3411)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Tasmania JackJumpers

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2449-2682 (5131)

Research grade

AvoidBrisbane Bullets at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Brisbane Bullets

7 of 13 top traders (54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Brisbane Bullets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.