Adelaide 36ers vs. Illawarra Hawks

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Adelaide 36ers (75%) · Adelaide 36ers at 99¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 14

Adelaide 36ers99¢Illawarra Hawks1¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

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⚠️

Avoid

Adelaide 36ers

Consensus Traders

Adelaide 36ers 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

$152.65

Smart Money Entry

70.6¢ → 99¢

+40% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidAdelaide 36ers at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Adelaide 36ers

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Adelaide 36ers99%

Illawarra Hawks1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Adelaide 36ers6 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares5,599

Combined PnL+$177.88

Illawarra Hawks2 traders

Total Value$230.35

Total Shares731

Combined PnL-$25.24

Adelaide 36ers — 75%Illawarra Hawks — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Adelaide 36ersavg 73.9¢	$2.7K	$2.9K	+$158.97	51% 26991-25572 (52563)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Adelaide 36ersavg 66.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$49.17	46% 1755-2052 (3807)
MR MrBently	Adelaide 36ersavg 68¢	$679.98	$684.98	+$5	52% 613-557 (1170)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Illawarra Hawksavg 30.5¢	$859.58	$432.48	-$427.1	50% 21519-21799 (43318)
└ Illawarra Hawks leg	Illawarra Hawksavg 30.5¢	$741.74	$303.69	-$438.05
└ Adelaide 36ers leg	Adelaide 36ersavg 80.1¢	$117.84	$128.79	+$10.95
alpheclabs2	Adelaide 36ersavg 68.9¢	$259.2	$312.08	+$52.88	47% 1344-1523 (2867)
tradecraftCTR	Illawarra Hawksavg 35¢	$253.35	$228.15	-$25.2	51% 6508-6273 (12781)
LR lryyy<$100	Adelaide 36ersavg 59¢	$45.28	$52.57	+$7.29	47% 9510-10646 (20156)
VeryLucky888	Adelaide 36ersavg 64.2¢	$178.17	$14	+$2.92	58% 47408-34193 (81601)
probabilityCTR<$100	Illawarra Hawksavg 32¢	$2.24	$2.21	-$0.04	40% 1595-2386 (3981)

Flaznorp

Adelaide 36ers

Invested

$2,745.72

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$158.97

Record

51%

26991-25572 (52563)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Adelaide 36ers

Invested

$1,321.92

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$49.17

Record

46%

1755-2052 (3807)

MrBently

Adelaide 36ers

Invested

$679.98

Value

$684.98

PnL

+$5

Record

52%

613-557 (1170)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Illawarra Hawks

Invested

$859.58

Value

$432.48

PnL

-$427.1

Record

50%

21519-21799 (43318)

Both legs:

Illawarra Hawks$741.7430.5¢-$438.05

Adelaide 36ers$117.8480.1¢+$10.95

alpheclabs2

Adelaide 36ers

Invested

$259.2

Value

$312.08

PnL

+$52.88

Record

47%

1344-1523 (2867)

tradecraftCTR

Illawarra Hawks

Invested

$253.35

Value

$228.15

PnL

-$25.2

Record

51%

6508-6273 (12781)

lryyy<$100

Adelaide 36ers

Invested

$45.28

Value

$52.57

PnL

+$7.29

Record

47%

9510-10646 (20156)

VeryLucky888

Adelaide 36ers

Invested

$178.17

Value

$14

PnL

+$2.92

Record

58%

47408-34193 (81601)

probabilityCTR<$100

Illawarra Hawks

Invested

$2.24

Value

$2.21

PnL

-$0.04

Record

40%

1595-2386 (3981)

Research grade

AvoidAdelaide 36ers at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Adelaide 36ers

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Adelaide 36ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.