Adelaide 36ers vs. Brisbane Bullets: O/U 189.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 100¢ · $635 held · ended Nov 1

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

Total Value

$635.01

Combined PnL

$199.73

Smart Money Entry

42.3¢ → 99.6¢

+135% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$465.69

Total Shares557

Combined PnL+$214.48

Over3 traders

Total Value$169.31

Total Shares368

Combined PnL-$14.75

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
poshposh	Underavg 40.4¢	$178.32	$401.82	+$223.49	58% 10615-7587 (18202)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Overavg 41.9¢	$123.41	$117.68	-$5.73	59% 30651-21360 (52011)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 47.3¢	$72.89	$63.87	-$9.02	48% 1052-1156 (2208)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$29.26	$30.12	-$0.01	57% 29203-21595 (50798)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 63.2¢	$30.52	$21.52	-$9	53% 5561-4981 (10542)

poshposh

Under

Invested

$178.32

Value

$401.82

PnL

+$223.49

Record

58%

10615-7587 (18202)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Over

Invested

$123.41

Value

$117.68

PnL

-$5.73

Record

59%

30651-21360 (52011)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$72.89

Value

$63.87

PnL

-$9.02

Record

48%

1052-1156 (2208)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.26

Value

$30.12

PnL

-$0.01

Record

57%

29203-21595 (50798)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$30.52

Value

$21.52

PnL

-$9

Record

53%

5561-4981 (10542)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.