Adelaide 36ers vs. Brisbane Bullets

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Brisbane Bullets (83%) · Brisbane Bullets at 73¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 8

Adelaide 36ers27¢Brisbane Bullets73¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Brisbane Bullets

Consensus Traders

Brisbane Bullets 83%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$195.1

Smart Money Entry

44.9¢ → 73¢

+63% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidBrisbane Bullets at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Brisbane Bullets

5 of 6 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Adelaide 36ers27%

Brisbane Bullets73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Brisbane Bullets5 traders

Total Value$721.67

Total Shares1,085

Combined PnL+$186.02

Adelaide 36ers1 trader

Total Value$42.81

Total Shares25

Combined PnL+$9.08

Brisbane Bullets — 83%Adelaide 36ers — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Brisbane Bullets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBrisbane Bullets 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedBrisbane Bullets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Brisbane Bullets 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Adelaide 36ersavg 42.7¢	$4.8K	$4.9K	+$121.66	48% 1050-1155 (2205)
└ Brisbane Bullets leg	Brisbane Bulletsavg 43.8¢	$1.9K	$3.4K	+$1.5K
└ Adelaide 36ers leg	Adelaide 36ersavg 42.7¢	$2.8K	$1.5K	$-1.3K
poshposh	Brisbane Bulletsavg 40.1¢	$278.4	$398.28	+$119.88	58% 10610-7577 (18187)
TO torta.tech	Brisbane Bulletsavg 45.1¢	$239.25	$174.96	+$55.76	63% 8218-4930 (13148)
tradecraftARB<$100	Adelaide 36ersavg 44.2¢	$64.5	$116.31	+$51.81	51% 6057-5778 (11835)
└ Brisbane Bullets leg	Brisbane Bulletsavg 52.3¢	$54.48	$76.57	+$22.09
└ Adelaide 36ers leg	Adelaide 36ersavg 44.2¢	$66.24	$39.73	+$29.72
OM omnibus-076daa	Brisbane Bulletsavg 79¢	$110.5	$108.37	-$2.13	50% 19412-19792 (39204)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Adelaide 36ersavg 68.4¢	$33.73	$42.81	+$9.08	53% 5545-4956 (10501)
VeryLucky888<$100	Brisbane Bulletsavg 25¢	$25	$29.84	+$13.21	58% 42597-30998 (73595)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Brisbane Bulletsavg 25¢	$5.81	$10.23	-$0.7	57% 29194-21587 (50781)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Adelaide 36ers

Invested

$4,758.71

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$121.66

Record

48%

1050-1155 (2205)

Both legs:

Brisbane Bullets$1,90943.8¢+$1.5K

Adelaide 36ers$2,849.7242.7¢$-1.3K

poshposh

Brisbane Bullets

Invested

$278.4

Value

$398.28

PnL

+$119.88

Record

58%

10610-7577 (18187)

torta.tech

Brisbane Bullets

Invested

$239.25

Value

$174.96

PnL

+$55.76

Record

63%

8218-4930 (13148)

tradecraftARB<$100

Adelaide 36ers

Invested

$64.5

Value

$116.31

PnL

+$51.81

Record

51%

6057-5778 (11835)

Both legs:

Brisbane Bullets$54.4852.3¢+$22.09

Adelaide 36ers$66.2444.2¢+$29.72

omnibus-076daa

Brisbane Bullets

Invested

$110.5

Value

$108.37

PnL

-$2.13

Record

50%

19412-19792 (39204)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Adelaide 36ers

Invested

$33.73

Value

$42.81

PnL

+$9.08

Record

53%

5545-4956 (10501)

VeryLucky888<$100

Brisbane Bullets

Invested

$25

Value

$29.84

PnL

+$13.21

Record

58%

42597-30998 (73595)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Brisbane Bullets

Invested

$5.81

Value

$10.23

PnL

-$0.7

Record

57%

29194-21587 (50781)

Research grade

AvoidBrisbane Bullets at 73%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Brisbane Bullets

5 of 6 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Brisbane Bullets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBrisbane Bullets 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedBrisbane Bullets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Brisbane Bullets 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Brisbane Bullets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.0%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.