Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Cruzeiro Basquete, while the market favors Unifacisa (54%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Cruzeiro Basquete vs. Unifacisa

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Cruzeiro Basquete (60%) · Cruzeiro Basquete at 47¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 20

Cruzeiro Basquete47¢Unifacisa53¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cruzeiro Basquete

Consensus Traders

Cruzeiro Basquete 60%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$441.56

Smart Money Entry

41.3¢ → 46.5¢

+13% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidCruzeiro Basquete at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cruzeiro Basquete

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Unifacisa 54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Cruzeiro Basquete47%

Unifacisa54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cruzeiro Basquete6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,346

Combined PnL+$293.7

Unifacisa4 traders

Total Value$716.91

Total Shares847

Combined PnL+$147.86

Cruzeiro Basquete — 60%Unifacisa — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Cruzeiro Basquete. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCruzeiro Basquete 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedCruzeiro Basquete 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cruzeiro Basquete 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpCTR	Cruzeiro Basqueteavg 50¢	$525	$456.75	-$68.25	53% 750-669 (1419)
FL Flaznorp	Unifacisaavg 50.2¢	$349.46	$389.3	+$39.84	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
VeryLucky888CTR	Cruzeiro Basqueteavg 35.7¢	$185.8	$346.36	+$205.74	53% 1179-1029 (2208)
tradecraft	Unifacisaavg 63.9¢	$167.52	$216.43	+$48.9	29% 298-747 (1045)
BI biying88888CTR	Cruzeiro Basqueteavg 32¢	$60.16	$161.68	+$101.52	43% 192-254 (446)
SM smithagent	Unifacisaavg 8.2¢	$18.45	$110.75	+$92.3	44% 599-749 (1348)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Cruzeiro Basqueteavg 27¢	$43.78	$86.93	+$43.15	53% 6885-6020 (12905)
poshposhCTR<$100	Cruzeiro Basqueteavg 26¢	$19.33	$41.66	+$22.33	48% 1014-1100 (2114)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Cruzeiro Basqueteavg 60.6¢	$49.97	$39.18	-$10.79	45% 706-873 (1579)
dips.<$100	Unifacisaavg 78.1¢	$33.62	$0.43	-$33.19	47% 860-963 (1823)

NotJumpCTR

Cruzeiro Basquete

Invested

$525

Value

$456.75

PnL

-$68.25

Record

53%

750-669 (1419)

Flaznorp

Unifacisa

Invested

$349.46

Value

$389.3

PnL

+$39.84

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

VeryLucky888CTR

Cruzeiro Basquete

Invested

$185.8

Value

$346.36

PnL

+$205.74

Record

53%

1179-1029 (2208)

tradecraft

Unifacisa

Invested

$167.52

Value

$216.43

PnL

+$48.9

Record

29%

298-747 (1045)

biying88888CTR

Cruzeiro Basquete

Invested

$60.16

Value

$161.68

PnL

+$101.52

Record

43%

192-254 (446)

smithagent

Unifacisa

Invested

$18.45

Value

$110.75

PnL

+$92.3

Record

44%

599-749 (1348)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Cruzeiro Basquete

Invested

$43.78

Value

$86.93

PnL

+$43.15

Record

53%

6885-6020 (12905)

poshposhCTR<$100

Cruzeiro Basquete

Invested

$19.33

Value

$41.66

PnL

+$22.33

Record

48%

1014-1100 (2114)

lryyyCTR<$100

Cruzeiro Basquete

Invested

$49.97

Value

$39.18

PnL

-$10.79

Record

45%

706-873 (1579)

dips.<$100

Unifacisa

Invested

$33.62

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$33.19

Record

47%

860-963 (1823)

Research grade

AvoidCruzeiro Basquete at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Cruzeiro Basquete

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Unifacisa 54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Cruzeiro Basquete. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCruzeiro Basquete 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedCruzeiro Basquete 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Cruzeiro Basquete 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cruzeiro Basquete wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.