Caxias Do Sul vs. Pato Basquete

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Pato Basquete (69%) · Pato Basquete at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 19

Caxias Do Sul<1¢Pato Basquete>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pato Basquete

Consensus Traders

Pato Basquete 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$394.43

Smart Money Entry

59.9¢ → 100¢

+67% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidPato Basquete at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pato Basquete

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Caxias Do Sul0%

Pato Basquete100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pato Basquete9 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,725

Combined PnL+$300.08

Caxias Do Sul4 traders

Total Value$669.2

Total Shares866

Combined PnL+$94.35

Pato Basquete — 69%Caxias Do Sul — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO looppau	Pato Basqueteavg 99.9¢	$580.22	$580.51	+$0.29	100% 441-0 (441)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Caxias Do Sulavg 38.5¢	$383.19	$471.74	+$88.55	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
OM omnibus-076daa	Pato Basqueteavg 48.8¢	$162.21	$332.21	+$170	42% 306-427 (733)
BI biying88888	Pato Basqueteavg 34¢	$103.72	$212.01	+$108.29	42% 169-232 (401)
dips.CTR	Caxias Do Sulavg 62¢	$179.8	$191.4	+$11.6	46% 593-709 (1302)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Pato Basqueteavg 37.6¢	$235.65	$141.24	-$17.71	53% 852-766 (1618)
└ Pato Basquete leg	Pato Basqueteavg 37.6¢	$83.29	$75.23	-$15.4
└ Caxias Do Sul leg	Caxias Do Sulavg 67¢	$67.01	$66.01	-$2.31
SM smithagent	Pato Basqueteavg 95¢	$122.44	$119.53	+$5.5	43% 400-536 (936)
tradecraft<$100	Pato Basqueteavg 50.2¢	$18.02	$32.15	+$14.13	23% 193-656 (849)
CI cigarettes<$100	Pato Basqueteavg 11¢	$20.3	$23.17	+$2.87	53% 6319-5588 (11907)
LI Limousin<$100	Pato Basqueteavg 39¢	$25.58	$22.3	-$3.28	33% 620-1253 (1873)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Pato Basqueteavg 4¢	$3.36	$6.29	+$2.94	30% 233-531 (764)
LI LightParadox<$100	Pato Basqueteavg 38¢	$6.14	$5.49	-$0.65	34% 639-1259 (1898)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Caxias Do Sulavg 63¢	$11.1	$5.3	-$5.8	49% 1386-1434 (2820)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Caxias Do Sulavg 19¢	$0.76	$0.76	+$0	45% 465-578 (1043)

looppau

Pato Basquete

Invested

$580.22

Value

$580.51

PnL

+$0.29

Record

100%

441-0 (441)

FlaznorpCTR

Caxias Do Sul

Invested

$383.19

Value

$471.74

PnL

+$88.55

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

omnibus-076daa

Pato Basquete

Invested

$162.21

Value

$332.21

PnL

+$170

Record

42%

306-427 (733)

biying88888

Pato Basquete

Invested

$103.72

Value

$212.01

PnL

+$108.29

Record

42%

169-232 (401)

dips.CTR

Caxias Do Sul

Invested

$179.8

Value

$191.4

PnL

+$11.6

Record

46%

593-709 (1302)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Pato Basquete

Invested

$235.65

Value

$141.24

PnL

-$17.71

Record

53%

852-766 (1618)

Both legs:

Pato Basquete$83.2937.6¢-$15.4

Caxias Do Sul$67.0167¢-$2.31

smithagent

Pato Basquete

Invested

$122.44

Value

$119.53

PnL

+$5.5

Record

43%

400-536 (936)

tradecraft<$100

Pato Basquete

Invested

$18.02

Value

$32.15

PnL

+$14.13

Record

23%

193-656 (849)

cigarettes<$100

Pato Basquete

Invested

$20.3

Value

$23.17

PnL

+$2.87

Record

53%

6319-5588 (11907)

Limousin<$100

Pato Basquete

Invested

$25.58

Value

$22.3

PnL

-$3.28

Record

33%

620-1253 (1873)

SlickRick123<$100

Pato Basquete

Invested

$3.36

Value

$6.29

PnL

+$2.94

Record

30%

233-531 (764)

LightParadox<$100

Pato Basquete

Invested

$6.14

Value

$5.49

PnL

-$0.65

Record

34%

639-1259 (1898)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Caxias Do Sul

Invested

$11.1

Value

$5.3

PnL

-$5.8

Record

49%

1386-1434 (2820)

lryyyCTR<$100

Caxias Do Sul

Invested

$0.76

Value

$0.76

PnL

+$0

Record

45%

465-578 (1043)

Research grade

AvoidPato Basquete at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Pato Basquete

9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pato Basquete wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.