Botafogo vs. Sesi/Franca BC SP

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Sesi/Franca BC SP (75%) · Sesi/Franca BC SP at 86¢ · $807 held · ends Nov 19

Botafogo14¢Sesi/Franca BC SP86¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Sesi/Franca BC SP

Consensus Traders

Sesi/Franca BC SP 75%

Total Value

$806.93

Combined PnL

$16.08

Smart Money Entry

81.9¢ → 85.5¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidSesi/Franca BC SP at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sesi/Franca BC SP

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Botafogo14%

Sesi/Franca BC SP86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sesi/Franca BC SP6 traders

Total Value$743.29

Total Shares858

Combined PnL+$40.5

Botafogo2 traders

Total Value$63.64

Total Shares455

Combined PnL-$24.43

Sesi/Franca BC SP — 75%Botafogo — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Sesi/Franca BC SP. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Botafogo) and the top 1000 (6 on Sesi/Franca BC SP) disagree here.

ctrBotafogo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedBotafogo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Sesi/Franca BC SP 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Sesi/Franca BC SPavg 80.7¢	$311.46	$335.78	+$24.32	51% 2643-2567 (5210)
poshposh	Sesi/Franca BC SPavg 85¢	$130.42	$130.42	+$0	48% 591-648 (1239)
ST stepanka1234	Sesi/Franca BC SPavg 83.5¢	$105.61	$109.99	+$4.38	— 5-7 (12)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Sesi/Franca BC SPavg 81¢	$90.57	$97.26	+$6.69	54% 94-79 (173)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Botafogoavg 19.7¢	$83.84	$59.7	-$24.14	52% 816-742 (1558)
SE sentrio<$100	Sesi/Franca BC SPavg 80.8¢	$54.45	$58.6	+$4.15	41% 590-850 (1440)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Sesi/Franca BC SPavg 79.6¢	$10.28	$11.23	+$0.95	49% 1313-1344 (2657)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Botafogoavg 15¢	$4.22	$3.94	-$0.28	35% 221-416 (637)

Flaznorp

Sesi/Franca BC SP

Invested

$311.46

Value

$335.78

PnL

+$24.32

Record

51%

2643-2567 (5210)

poshposh

Sesi/Franca BC SP

Invested

$130.42

Value

$130.42

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

591-648 (1239)

stepanka1234

Sesi/Franca BC SP

Invested

$105.61

Value

$109.99

PnL

+$4.38

Record

—

5-7 (12)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

Sesi/Franca BC SP

Invested

$90.57

Value

$97.26

PnL

+$6.69

Record

54%

94-79 (173)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Botafogo

Invested

$83.84

Value

$59.7

PnL

-$24.14

Record

52%

816-742 (1558)

sentrio<$100

Sesi/Franca BC SP

Invested

$54.45

Value

$58.6

PnL

+$4.15

Record

41%

590-850 (1440)

ferdinand2<$100

Sesi/Franca BC SP

Invested

$10.28

Value

$11.23

PnL

+$0.95

Record

49%

1313-1344 (2657)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Botafogo

Invested

$4.22

Value

$3.94

PnL

-$0.28

Record

35%

221-416 (637)

Research grade

AvoidSesi/Franca BC SP at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Sesi/Franca BC SP

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Sesi/Franca BC SP. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Botafogo) and the top 1000 (6 on Sesi/Franca BC SP) disagree here.

ctrBotafogo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedBotafogo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Sesi/Franca BC SP 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sesi/Franca BC SP wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.