Basquete Osasco vs. Mogi das Cruzes

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Mogi das Cruzes (60%) · Mogi das Cruzes at 86¢ · $376 held · ends Nov 19

Basquete Osasco14¢Mogi das Cruzes86¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mogi das Cruzes

Consensus Traders

Mogi das Cruzes 60%

Total Value

$376.46

Combined PnL

$1.16

Smart Money Entry

84.7¢ → 85.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidMogi das Cruzes at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mogi das Cruzes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Basquete Osasco14%

Mogi das Cruzes86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mogi das Cruzes3 traders

Total Value$284.5

Total Shares331

Combined PnL+$3.93

Basquete Osasco2 traders

Total Value$91.97

Total Shares634

Combined PnL-$2.77

Mogi das Cruzes — 60%Basquete Osasco — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Mogi das Cruzes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Basquete Osasco) and the top 1000 (4 on Mogi das Cruzes) disagree here.

ctrBasquete Osasco 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedBasquete Osasco 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Mogi das Cruzes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Mogi das Cruzesavg 84¢	$162.13	$165.99	+$3.86	51% 1822-1784 (3606)
ST stepanka1234<$100	Mogi das Cruzesavg 86¢	$92.87	$92.33	-$0.54	— 3-6 (9)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Basquete Osascoavg 14.9¢	$57.96	$56.41	-$1.55	52% 445-417 (862)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Basquete Osascoavg 15¢	$36.78	$35.55	-$1.23	9% 13-129 (142)
SE sentrio<$100	Mogi das Cruzesavg 84¢	$25.57	$26.18	+$0.61	37% 340-570 (910)

Flaznorp

Mogi das Cruzes

Invested

$162.13

Value

$165.99

PnL

+$3.86

Record

51%

1822-1784 (3606)

stepanka1234<$100

Mogi das Cruzes

Invested

$92.87

Value

$92.33

PnL

-$0.54

Record

—

3-6 (9)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Basquete Osasco

Invested

$57.96

Value

$56.41

PnL

-$1.55

Record

52%

445-417 (862)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Basquete Osasco

Invested

$36.78

Value

$35.55

PnL

-$1.23

Record

13-129 (142)

sentrio<$100

Mogi das Cruzes

Invested

$25.57

Value

$26.18

PnL

+$0.61

Record

37%

340-570 (910)

Research grade

AvoidMogi das Cruzes at 86%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Mogi das Cruzes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Mogi das Cruzes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Basquete Osasco) and the top 1000 (4 on Mogi das Cruzes) disagree here.

ctrBasquete Osasco 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedBasquete Osasco 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Mogi das Cruzes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mogi das Cruzes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.