Soles de Mexicali vs. Astros de Jalisco
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Soles de Mexicali (60%) · Soles de Mexicali at 65¢ · $386 held · ends Nov 20
⚠️
Avoid
Soles de Mexicali
5
Soles de Mexicali 60%
$386.15
$2.36
61.6¢ → 65¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidSoles de Mexicali at 65%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Soles de Mexicali. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Soles de Mexicaliavg 61.2¢ | $179.85 | $191.1 | +$11.25 | 51% 1818-1777 (3595) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Astros de Jaliscoavg 38.1¢ | $136.32 | $125.18 | -$11.14 | 52% 441-413 (854) |
ST stepanka1234<$100 | Soles de Mexicaliavg 63¢ | $59.57 | $61.93 | +$2.36 | — 3-6 (9) |
BA BayupatiCTR<$100 | Astros de Jaliscoavg 36¢ | $6.35 | $6.17 | -$0.18 | 9% 13-128 (141) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Soles de Mexicaliavg 63¢ | $1.7 | $1.77 | +$0.07 | 37% 339-567 (906) |
Invested
$179.85
Value
$191.1
PnL
+$11.25
Record
51%
1818-1777 (3595)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$136.32
Value
$125.18
PnL
-$11.14
Record
52%
441-413 (854)
Invested
$59.57
Value
$61.93
PnL
+$2.36
Record
—
3-6 (9)
Invested
$6.35
Value
$6.17
PnL
-$0.18
Record
9%
13-128 (141)
Invested
$1.7
Value
$1.77
PnL
+$0.07
Record
37%
339-567 (906)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.