Panteras de Aguascalientes vs. Soles de Mexicali
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Soles de Mexicali (80%) · Soles de Mexicali at 75¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Soles de Mexicali
5
Soles de Mexicali 80%
$1.2K
$12.56
68.9¢ → 74.5¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidSoles de Mexicali at 75%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Soles de Mexicaliavg 69¢ | $565.87 | $604.54 | +$38.66 | 51% 25773-24474 (50247) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Soles de Mexicaliavg 61.7¢ | $207.85 | $205.33 | -$2.52 | 50% 21194-21457 (42651) |
ST stepanka1234 | Soles de Mexicaliavg 72.5¢ | $259.68 | $191.52 | -$68.15 | 77% 63-19 (82) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Panteras de Aguascalientesavg 30.1¢ | $163.09 | $130.06 | +$42.96 | 58% 46712-33673 (80385) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Soles de Mexicaliavg 71.3¢ | $58.74 | $60.15 | +$1.6 | 50% 25834-25541 (51375) |
Invested
$565.87
Value
$604.54
PnL
+$38.66
Record
51%
25773-24474 (50247)
Invested
$207.85
Value
$205.33
PnL
-$2.52
Record
50%
21194-21457 (42651)
Invested
$259.68
Value
$191.52
PnL
-$68.15
Record
77%
63-19 (82)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$163.09
Value
$130.06
PnL
+$42.96
Record
58%
46712-33673 (80385)
Invested
$58.74
Value
$60.15
PnL
+$1.6
Record
50%
25834-25541 (51375)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.