BC Zalgiris Kaunas vs. BC Neptunas Klaipeda

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold BC Zalgiris Kaunas (30%) · BC Zalgiris Kaunas at 100¢ · $664 held · ends Nov 22

BC Zalgiris Kaunas>99¢BC Neptunas Klaipeda<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

BC Zalgiris Kaunas

Consensus Traders

BC Zalgiris Kaunas 30%

Total Value

$664.4

Combined PnL

$138.55

Smart Money Entry

88.3¢ → 100¢

+13% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidBC Zalgiris Kaunas at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

BC Zalgiris Kaunas

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

BC Zalgiris Kaunas100%

BC Neptunas Klaipeda0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

BC Zalgiris Kaunas3 traders

Total Value$323.63

Total Shares312

Combined PnL+$20.47

BC Neptunas Klaipeda7 traders

Total Value$340.78

Total Shares2,135

Combined PnL+$118.08

BC Zalgiris Kaunas — 30%BC Neptunas Klaipeda — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on BC Zalgiris Kaunas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBC Neptunas Klaipeda 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedBC Neptunas Klaipeda 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000BC Neptunas Klaipeda 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	BC Zalgiris Kaunasavg 88.7¢	$195.22	$217.65	+$22.43	46% 643-756 (1399)
SN SnakeBallCTR	BC Neptunas Klaipedaavg 9.8¢	$61.71	$163.64	+$101.93	47% 1199-1376 (2575)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	BC Neptunas Klaipedaavg 13.9¢	$55.53	$90.99	+$43.9	53% 1909-1671 (3580)
tradecraft<$100	BC Zalgiris Kaunasavg 87.8¢	$64.21	$62.48	-$1.73	34% 476-910 (1386)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	BC Neptunas Klaipedaavg 9.4¢	$95.9	$43.75	-$52.15	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	BC Zalgiris Kaunasavg 87.4¢	$43.72	$43.5	-$0.22	51% 202-191 (393)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	BC Neptunas Klaipedaavg 9.4¢	$10.81	$30.06	+$19.25	48% 2555-2763 (5318)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	BC Neptunas Klaipedaavg 10¢	$4.57	$11.88	+$7.31	38% 1354-2191 (3545)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	BC Neptunas Klaipedaavg 20¢	$1.15	$0.23	-$0.92	41% 739-1047 (1786)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	BC Neptunas Klaipedaavg 26¢	$1.46	$0.23	-$1.24	45% 984-1181 (2165)

omnibus-076daa

BC Zalgiris Kaunas

Invested

$195.22

Value

$217.65

PnL

+$22.43

Record

46%

643-756 (1399)

SnakeBallCTR

BC Neptunas Klaipeda

Invested

$61.71

Value

$163.64

PnL

+$101.93

Record

47%

1199-1376 (2575)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

BC Neptunas Klaipeda

Invested

$55.53

Value

$90.99

PnL

+$43.9

Record

53%

1909-1671 (3580)

tradecraft<$100

BC Zalgiris Kaunas

Invested

$64.21

Value

$62.48

PnL

-$1.73

Record

34%

476-910 (1386)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

BC Neptunas Klaipeda

Invested

$95.9

Value

$43.75

PnL

-$52.15

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

BC Zalgiris Kaunas

Invested

$43.72

Value

$43.5

PnL

-$0.22

Record

51%

202-191 (393)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

BC Neptunas Klaipeda

Invested

$10.81

Value

$30.06

PnL

+$19.25

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

BC Neptunas Klaipeda

Invested

$4.57

Value

$11.88

PnL

+$7.31

Record

38%

1354-2191 (3545)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

BC Neptunas Klaipeda

Invested

$1.15

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$0.92

Record

41%

739-1047 (1786)

lryyyCTR<$100

BC Neptunas Klaipeda

Invested

$1.46

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$1.24

Record

45%

984-1181 (2165)

Research grade

AvoidBC Zalgiris Kaunas at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

BC Zalgiris Kaunas

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on BC Zalgiris Kaunas. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBC Neptunas Klaipeda 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedBC Neptunas Klaipeda 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000BC Neptunas Klaipeda 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that BC Zalgiris Kaunas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.