Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Taurages Taurage, while the market favors BC Lietkabelis Panevezys (60%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Taurages Taurage vs. BC Lietkabelis Panevezys

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Taurages Taurage (75%) · Taurages Taurage at 41¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 21

Taurages Taurage41¢BC Lietkabelis Panevezys59¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Taurages Taurage

Consensus Traders

Taurages Taurage 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$45.44

Smart Money Entry

41.1¢ → 40.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidTaurages Taurage at 41%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Taurages Taurage

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors BC Lietkabelis Panevezys 60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Taurages Taurage41%

BC Lietkabelis Panevezys60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Taurages Taurage6 traders

Total Value$499.07

Total Shares1,281

Combined PnL-$43.4

BC Lietkabelis Panevezys2 traders

Total Value$71.2

Total Shares90

Combined PnL-$2.04

Taurages Taurage — 75%BC Lietkabelis Panevezys — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Taurages Taurage. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTaurages Taurage 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTaurages Taurage 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedTaurages Taurage 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Taurages Taurage 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	BC Lietkabelis Panevezysavg 50¢	$525	$546	+$21	52% 820-759 (1579)
└ BC Lietkabelis Panevezys leg	BC Lietkabelis Panevezysavg 50¢	$262.5	$330.75	+$68.25
└ Taurages Taurage leg	Taurages Taurageavg 50¢	$262.5	$215.25	-$47.25
alpheclabs2CTR	Taurages Taurageavg 40.5¢	$350.43	$320.05	-$30.38	46% 289-344 (633)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	BC Lietkabelis Panevezysavg 76¢	$259.5	$240.25	-$19.26	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
└ BC Lietkabelis Panevezys leg	BC Lietkabelis Panevezysavg 76¢	$175.44	$166.13	-$9.32
└ Taurages Taurage leg	Taurages Taurageavg 31.8¢	$84.06	$74.12	-$9.94
poshposhCTR<$100	Taurages Taurageavg 41.2¢	$75.76	$68.06	-$7.7	49% 1117-1185 (2302)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Taurages Taurageavg 44¢	$86.08	$56.35	-$0.49	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	BC Lietkabelis Panevezysavg 73¢	$46	$40	-$6	82% 709-151 (860)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	BC Lietkabelis Panevezysavg 55¢	$27.24	$31.2	+$3.96	46% 492-580 (1072)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Taurages Taurageavg 45.2¢	$20.4	$19.83	-$0.57	30% 335-776 (1111)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Taurages Taurageavg 42¢	$21	$18.5	-$2.5	53% 7060-6194 (13254)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Taurages Taurageavg 41¢	$18.04	$16.28	-$1.76	45% 805-991 (1796)

NotJumpARB<$100

BC Lietkabelis Panevezys

Invested

$525

Value

$546

PnL

+$21

Record

52%

820-759 (1579)

Both legs:

BC Lietkabelis Panevezys$262.550¢+$68.25

Taurages Taurage$262.550¢-$47.25

alpheclabs2CTR

Taurages Taurage

Invested

$350.43

Value

$320.05

PnL

-$30.38

Record

46%

289-344 (633)

FlaznorpARB<$100

BC Lietkabelis Panevezys

Invested

$259.5

Value

$240.25

PnL

-$19.26

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

Both legs:

BC Lietkabelis Panevezys$175.4476¢-$9.32

Taurages Taurage$84.0631.8¢-$9.94

poshposhCTR<$100

Taurages Taurage

Invested

$75.76

Value

$68.06

PnL

-$7.7

Record

49%

1117-1185 (2302)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Taurages Taurage

Invested

$86.08

Value

$56.35

PnL

-$0.49

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

BC Lietkabelis Panevezys

Invested

$46

Value

$40

PnL

-$6

Record

82%

709-151 (860)

omnibus-076daa<$100

BC Lietkabelis Panevezys

Invested

$27.24

Value

$31.2

PnL

+$3.96

Record

46%

492-580 (1072)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Taurages Taurage

Invested

$20.4

Value

$19.83

PnL

-$0.57

Record

30%

335-776 (1111)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Taurages Taurage

Invested

$21

Value

$18.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

53%

7060-6194 (13254)

lryyyCTR<$100

Taurages Taurage

Invested

$18.04

Value

$16.28

PnL

-$1.76

Record

45%

805-991 (1796)

Research grade

AvoidTaurages Taurage at 41%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Taurages Taurage

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors BC Lietkabelis Panevezys 60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on Taurages Taurage. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpTaurages Taurage 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTaurages Taurage 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedTaurages Taurage 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Taurages Taurage 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Taurages Taurage wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.