Valencia vs. Basquet Coruna

4 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Valencia (22%) · Valencia at 98¢ · $28K held · ends Nov 22

Valencia98¢Basquet Coruna2¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Valencia

Consensus Traders

Valencia 22%

Total Value

$27.9K

Combined PnL

-$30.85

Smart Money Entry

94.3¢ → 98¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidValencia at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Valencia

4 of 18 top traders (22%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Valencia98%

Basquet Coruna2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Valencia4 traders

Total Value$27.4K

Total Shares27,873

Combined PnL+$622.34

Basquet Coruna14 traders

Total Value$562.85

Total Shares31,502

Combined PnL-$653.2

Valencia — 22%Basquet Coruna — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Valencia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpValencia 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBasquet Coruna 79% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedBasquet Coruna 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Basquet Coruna 76% · 17

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZO Zombie77	Valenciaavg 95.4¢	$25.4K	$26.1K	+$682.18	— 16-3 (19)
NO NotJump	Valenciaavg 57.7¢	$1.3K	$777.75	+$10.58	50% 1112-1113 (2225)
SN SnakeBall	Valenciaavg 93.6¢	$590.63	$519.98	-$70.65	47% 1186-1358 (2544)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Basquet Corunaavg 3.6¢	$755.18	$432.37	-$322.8	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
dips.CTR<$100	Basquet Corunaavg 4¢	$63.96	$32.78	-$31.18	48% 1294-1381 (2675)
OD OddstormCTR	Basquet Corunaavg 5¢	$128.35	$25.67	-$102.68	35% 138-251 (389)
SM smithagentCTR	Basquet Corunaavg 4¢	$108.48	$17.39	-$51.09	46% 873-1017 (1890)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Basquet Corunaavg 3.8¢	$28.71	$15.45	-$13.27	48% 2518-2728 (5246)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Basquet Corunaavg 5¢	$66.16	$13.23	-$52.93	38% 1338-2179 (3517)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Basquet Corunaavg 5¢	$54.6	$10.91	-$43.69	35% 628-1146 (1774)
SU suntori<$100	Valenciaavg 94¢	$3.8	$4.03	+$0.23	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Basquet Corunaavg 3.2¢	$11.2	$3.5	-$7.7	53% 7468-6589 (14057)
poshposhCTR<$100	Basquet Corunaavg 2.6¢	$9.02	$3.47	-$5.55	49% 1306-1379 (2685)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Basquet Corunaavg 4.1¢	$13.66	$3.36	-$10.3	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Basquet Corunaavg 6.3¢	$8.53	$2.76	-$5.77	46% 621-730 (1351)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Basquet Corunaavg 5¢	$6.9	$1.38	-$5.52	34% 460-894 (1354)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Basquet Corunaavg 4¢	$1	$0.51	-$0.49	12% 61-444 (505)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Basquet Corunaavg 4¢	$0.3	$0.07	-$0.22	53% 1883-1643 (3526)

Zombie77

Valencia

Invested

$25,379.8

Value

$26.1K

PnL

+$682.18

Record

—

16-3 (19)

NotJump

Valencia

Invested

$1,314.05

Value

$777.75

PnL

+$10.58

Record

50%

1112-1113 (2225)

SnakeBall

Valencia

Invested

$590.63

Value

$519.98

PnL

-$70.65

Record

47%

1186-1358 (2544)

FlaznorpCTR

Basquet Coruna

Invested

$755.18

Value

$432.37

PnL

-$322.8

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

dips.CTR<$100

Basquet Coruna

Invested

$63.96

Value

$32.78

PnL

-$31.18

Record

48%

1294-1381 (2675)

OddstormCTR

Basquet Coruna

Invested

$128.35

Value

$25.67

PnL

-$102.68

Record

35%

138-251 (389)

smithagentCTR

Basquet Coruna

Invested

$108.48

Value

$17.39

PnL

-$51.09

Record

46%

873-1017 (1890)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Basquet Coruna

Invested

$28.71

Value

$15.45

PnL

-$13.27

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Basquet Coruna

Invested

$66.16

Value

$13.23

PnL

-$52.93

Record

38%

1338-2179 (3517)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Basquet Coruna

Invested

$54.6

Value

$10.91

PnL

-$43.69

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

suntori<$100

Valencia

Invested

$3.8

Value

$4.03

PnL

+$0.23

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Basquet Coruna

Invested

$11.2

Value

$3.5

PnL

-$7.7

Record

53%

7468-6589 (14057)

poshposhCTR<$100

Basquet Coruna

Invested

$9.02

Value

$3.47

PnL

-$5.55

Record

49%

1306-1379 (2685)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Basquet Coruna

Invested

$13.66

Value

$3.36

PnL

-$10.3

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Basquet Coruna

Invested

$8.53

Value

$2.76

PnL

-$5.77

Record

46%

621-730 (1351)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Basquet Coruna

Invested

$6.9

Value

$1.38

PnL

-$5.52

Record

34%

460-894 (1354)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Basquet Coruna

Invested

Value

$0.51

PnL

-$0.49

Record

12%

61-444 (505)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Basquet Coruna

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.22

Record

53%

1883-1643 (3526)

Research grade

AvoidValencia at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Valencia

4 of 18 top traders (22%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on Valencia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpValencia 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBasquet Coruna 79% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedBasquet Coruna 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Basquet Coruna 76% · 17

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Valencia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.