Unicaja vs. Basquet Girona

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Unicaja (60%) · Unicaja at 90¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 22

Unicaja90¢Basquet Girona10¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Unicaja

Consensus Traders

Unicaja 60%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$325.22

Smart Money Entry

75.4¢ → 90¢

+19% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnicaja at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Unicaja

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Unicaja90%

Basquet Girona10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Unicaja9 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares4,021

Combined PnL+$326.32

Basquet Girona6 traders

Total Value$192.16

Total Shares1,766

Combined PnL-$1.1

Unicaja — 60%Basquet Girona — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Unicaja. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnicaja 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnicaja 55% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Unicaja 60% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Unicajaavg 81¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$66.04	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
OM omnibus-076daa	Unicajaavg 80.8¢	$634.77	$673.76	+$72.32	46% 621-730 (1351)
NO NotJump	Unicajaavg 58.4¢	$680.47	$646.71	+$8.3	50% 1112-1113 (2225)
SN SnakeBall	Unicajaavg 75.1¢	$407.07	$477.75	+$70.68	47% 1186-1358 (2544)
poshposh	Unicajaavg 77.1¢	$272.74	$316.28	+$43.54	49% 1306-1379 (2685)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Unicajaavg 74¢	$169.38	$192.8	+$23.41	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
VE VenusianCTR	Basquet Gironaavg 9¢	$95.85	$117.15	+$21.3	38% 1339-2199 (3538)
LR lryyy<$100	Unicajaavg 77.9¢	$81.06	$92.56	+$11.5	45% 963-1156 (2119)
38 38791873984189	Unicajaavg 67.5¢	$131.98	$57.89	+$26.71	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Unicajaavg 69¢	$41.05	$44.88	+$3.83	83% 960-199 (1159)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Basquet Gironaavg 9¢	$24.99	$30.54	+$5.55	34% 460-894 (1354)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Basquet Gironaavg 9¢	$21.69	$26.51	+$4.82	35% 138-251 (389)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Basquet Gironaavg 33.1¢	$47.61	$13.72	-$33.89	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Basquet Gironaavg 10¢	$3.05	$3.35	+$0.3	41% 1173-1667 (2840)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Basquet Gironaavg 9¢	$5.07	$0.88	+$0.81	48% 2518-2728 (5246)

Flaznorp

Unicaja

Invested

$1,312.4

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$66.04

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

omnibus-076daa

Unicaja

Invested

$634.77

Value

$673.76

PnL

+$72.32

Record

46%

621-730 (1351)

NotJump

Unicaja

Invested

$680.47

Value

$646.71

PnL

+$8.3

Record

50%

1112-1113 (2225)

SnakeBall

Unicaja

Invested

$407.07

Value

$477.75

PnL

+$70.68

Record

47%

1186-1358 (2544)

poshposh

Unicaja

Invested

$272.74

Value

$316.28

PnL

+$43.54

Record

49%

1306-1379 (2685)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Unicaja

Invested

$169.38

Value

$192.8

PnL

+$23.41

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

VenusianCTR

Basquet Girona

Invested

$95.85

Value

$117.15

PnL

+$21.3

Record

38%

1339-2199 (3538)

lryyy<$100

Unicaja

Invested

$81.06

Value

$92.56

PnL

+$11.5

Record

45%

963-1156 (2119)

38791873984189

Unicaja

Invested

$131.98

Value

$57.89

PnL

+$26.71

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Unicaja

Invested

$41.05

Value

$44.88

PnL

+$3.83

Record

83%

960-199 (1159)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Basquet Girona

Invested

$24.99

Value

$30.54

PnL

+$5.55

Record

34%

460-894 (1354)

OddstormCTR<$100

Basquet Girona

Invested

$21.69

Value

$26.51

PnL

+$4.82

Record

35%

138-251 (389)

suntoriCTR<$100

Basquet Girona

Invested

$47.61

Value

$13.72

PnL

-$33.89

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

sentrioCTR<$100

Basquet Girona

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.35

PnL

+$0.3

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Basquet Girona

Invested

$5.07

Value

$0.88

PnL

+$0.81

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

Research grade

AvoidUnicaja at 90%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Unicaja

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

60% of non-arb traders are on Unicaja. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnicaja 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnicaja 55% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000Unicaja 60% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Unicaja wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.46

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.