Kosner Baskonia vs. Real Madrid

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Real Madrid (44%) · Real Madrid at 89¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 22

Kosner Baskonia12¢Real Madrid88¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Real Madrid

Consensus Traders

Real Madrid 44%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$19.66

Smart Money Entry

73.1¢ → 88.5¢

+21% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidReal Madrid at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Real Madrid

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Kosner Baskonia12%

Real Madrid89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Real Madrid4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,235

Combined PnL+$104.87

Kosner Baskonia5 traders

Total Value$243.12

Total Shares1,520

Combined PnL-$124.52

Real Madrid — 44%Kosner Baskonia — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Real Madrid. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKosner Baskonia 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Kosner Baskonia 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Real Madridavg 73.6¢	$787.63	$870.12	+$82.48	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
38 38791873984189	Real Madridavg 70.9¢	$92.67	$106.4	+$13.73	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Kosner Baskoniaavg 11.2¢	$59	$94.44	+$35.44	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Kosner Baskoniaavg 34.6¢	$104.05	$58.08	-$45.97	47% 1204-1385 (2589)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100	Kosner Baskoniaavg 28¢	$83	$47.43	-$35.57	46% 160-190 (350)
tradecraft<$100	Real Madridavg 71¢	$39.07	$45.12	+$6.05	35% 485-917 (1402)
QU QuentinChenCTR	Kosner Baskoniaavg 28.5¢	$118.59	$41.56	-$77.03	6% 10-156 (166)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Real Madridavg 64¢	$6.4	$9	+$2.6	48% 2576-2780 (5356)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Kosner Baskoniaavg 30¢	$3	$1.6	-$1.4	41% 1195-1702 (2897)

Flaznorp

Real Madrid

Invested

$787.63

Value

$870.12

PnL

+$82.48

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

38791873984189

Real Madrid

Invested

$92.67

Value

$106.4

PnL

+$13.73

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Kosner Baskonia

Invested

$59

Value

$94.44

PnL

+$35.44

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

SnakeBallCTR

Kosner Baskonia

Invested

$104.05

Value

$58.08

PnL

-$45.97

Record

47%

1204-1385 (2589)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR<$100

Kosner Baskonia

Invested

$83

Value

$47.43

PnL

-$35.57

Record

46%

160-190 (350)

tradecraft<$100

Real Madrid

Invested

$39.07

Value

$45.12

PnL

+$6.05

Record

35%

485-917 (1402)

QuentinChenCTR

Kosner Baskonia

Invested

$118.59

Value

$41.56

PnL

-$77.03

Record

10-156 (166)

ferdinand2<$100

Real Madrid

Invested

$6.4

Value

PnL

+$2.6

Record

48%

2576-2780 (5356)

sentrioCTR<$100

Kosner Baskonia

Invested

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$1.4

Record

41%

1195-1702 (2897)

Research grade

AvoidReal Madrid at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Real Madrid

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Real Madrid. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKosner Baskonia 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Kosner Baskonia 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Real Madrid wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.