Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Forca Lleida CE, while the market favors Manresa (93%). 4 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Forca Lleida CE vs. Manresa

4 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Forca Lleida CE (29%) · Forca Lleida CE at 7.5¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 22

Forca Lleida CE8¢Manresa92¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Forca Lleida CE

Consensus Traders

Forca Lleida CE 29%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.9K

Smart Money Entry

37¢ → 7.5¢

-80% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidForca Lleida CE at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Forca Lleida CE

4 of 14 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Manresa 93%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Forca Lleida CE8%

Manresa93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Manresa10 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares6,275

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Forca Lleida CE4 traders

Total Value$731.61

Total Shares10,302

Combined PnL$-3.1K

Manresa — 71%Forca Lleida CE — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Forca Lleida CEavg 40.2¢	$2.9K	$2.7K	-$173.28	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
└ Manresa leg	Manresaavg 54.5¢	$1.4K	$2.1K	+$717.45
└ Forca Lleida CE leg	Forca Lleida CEavg 40.2¢	$1.5K	$652.75	-$890.73
SN SnakeBall	Manresaavg 60¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$57.42	47% 1186-1358 (2544)
alpheclabs2	Manresaavg 50¢	$879.15	$1.5K	+$581.44	45% 363-445 (808)
poshposh	Manresaavg 50¢	$350.65	$582.15	+$231.5	49% 1306-1379 (2685)
38 38791873984189	Manresaavg 47.4¢	$436.18	$521.2	+$246.59	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Forca Lleida CEavg 31¢	$2.2K	$490.94	$-1.7K	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Forca Lleida CEavg 41.8¢	$585.06	$357.44	-$53.49	50% 1112-1113 (2225)
└ Manresa leg	Manresaavg 50¢	$136.22	$226.12	+$137.76
└ Forca Lleida CE leg	Forca Lleida CEavg 41.8¢	$322.56	$131.31	-$191.25
SU suntoriCTR	Forca Lleida CEavg 50.3¢	$1.6K	$223.29	$-1.4K	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
ARTEM-DZYUBA	Manresaavg 50.8¢	$205.82	$220.94	+$15.12	83% 960-199 (1159)
tradecraft	Manresaavg 71.4¢	$267.51	$193.31	-$49.14	34% 460-894 (1354)
LR lryyy<$100	Manresaavg 52.5¢	$59.1	$87.36	+$28.26	45% 963-1156 (2119)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Manresaavg 37¢	$33.92	$76.09	+$42.17	35% 138-251 (389)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Manresaavg 60¢	$15.07	$23.75	+$8.67	41% 718-1033 (1751)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Forca Lleida CEavg 35¢	$33.32	$16.18	-$17.14	43% 243-324 (567)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Manresaavg 61¢	$31.97	$10.78	+$3.68	48% 2518-2728 (5246)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Forca Lleida CEavg 50¢	$126	$1.2	-$0.89	64% 145-81 (226)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Forca Lleida CE

Invested

$2,913.4

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$173.28

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

Both legs:

Manresa$1,369.9354.5¢+$717.45

Forca Lleida CE$1,543.4740.2¢-$890.73

SnakeBall

Manresa

Invested

$2,471.85

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$57.42

Record

47%

1186-1358 (2544)

alpheclabs2

Manresa

Invested

$879.15

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$581.44

Record

45%

363-445 (808)

poshposh

Manresa

Invested

$350.65

Value

$582.15

PnL

+$231.5

Record

49%

1306-1379 (2685)

38791873984189

Manresa

Invested

$436.18

Value

$521.2

PnL

+$246.59

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Forca Lleida CE

Invested

$2,173.32

Value

$490.94

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

NotJumpARB<$100

Forca Lleida CE

Invested

$585.06

Value

$357.44

PnL

-$53.49

Record

50%

1112-1113 (2225)

Both legs:

Manresa$136.2250¢+$137.76

Forca Lleida CE$322.5641.8¢-$191.25

suntoriCTR

Forca Lleida CE

Invested

$1,633.84

Value

$223.29

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

ARTEM-DZYUBA

Manresa

Invested

$205.82

Value

$220.94

PnL

+$15.12

Record

83%

960-199 (1159)

tradecraft

Manresa

Invested

$267.51

Value

$193.31

PnL

-$49.14

Record

34%

460-894 (1354)

lryyy<$100

Manresa

Invested

$59.1

Value

$87.36

PnL

+$28.26

Record

45%

963-1156 (2119)

Oddstorm<$100

Manresa

Invested

$33.92

Value

$76.09

PnL

+$42.17

Record

35%

138-251 (389)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Manresa

Invested

$15.07

Value

$23.75

PnL

+$8.67

Record

41%

718-1033 (1751)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Forca Lleida CE

Invested

$33.32

Value

$16.18

PnL

-$17.14

Record

43%

243-324 (567)

ferdinand2<$100

Manresa

Invested

$31.97

Value

$10.78

PnL

+$3.68

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Forca Lleida CE

Invested

$126

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$0.89

Record

64%

145-81 (226)

Research grade

AvoidForca Lleida CE at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Forca Lleida CE

4 of 14 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Manresa 93%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Forca Lleida CE wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.9%

7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1025.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

1125.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.