CB Breogan Lugo vs. Burgos

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold CB Breogan Lugo (46%) · CB Breogan Lugo at 85¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 21

CB Breogan Lugo85¢Burgos15¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

CB Breogan Lugo

Consensus Traders

CB Breogan Lugo 46%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$156.36

Smart Money Entry

84.8¢ → 85¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidCB Breogan Lugo at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

CB Breogan Lugo

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

CB Breogan Lugo85%

Burgos15%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

CB Breogan Lugo6 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares5,254

Combined PnL-$15.15

Burgos7 traders

Total Value$203.73

Total Shares1,839

Combined PnL-$141.21

CB Breogan Lugo — 46%Burgos — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on CB Breogan Lugo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpBurgos 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBurgos 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Burgos 73% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BA BaltazarGombka	CB Breogan Lugoavg 80.8¢	$1.7K	$2.0K	+$289.15	— 4-0 (4)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	CB Breogan Lugoavg 88¢	$1.9K	$1.6K	-$295.14	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
OM omnibus-076daa	CB Breogan Lugoavg 90¢	$514.57	$530.87	+$21.72	46% 497-591 (1088)
FL Flaznorp	CB Breogan Lugoavg 81.6¢	$469.84	$439.36	-$23.83	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Burgosavg 19¢	$195.37	$123.39	-$71.98	53% 41-37 (78)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Burgosavg 45.9¢	$528.18	$85.02	+$10.54	52% 833-779 (1612)
└ Burgos leg	Burgosavg 45.9¢	$240.83	$63	-$198.96
└ CB Breogan Lugo leg	CB Breogan Lugoavg 50¢	$12.51	$22.02	+$209.5
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Burgosavg 19.8¢	$83.48	$50.64	-$32.84	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	CB Breogan Lugoavg 76¢	$46.07	$39.25	-$6.82	83% 729-152 (881)
poshposh<$100	CB Breogan Lugoavg 87¢	$35.4	$35.17	-$0.23	48% 1134-1214 (2348)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Burgosavg 18.2¢	$44.65	$13.46	-$31.19	31% 343-780 (1123)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Burgosavg 13¢	$11.44	$10.56	-$0.88	45% 814-997 (1811)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Burgosavg 8¢	$2.16	$3.24	+$1.08	46% 294-351 (645)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Burgosavg 27.2¢	$6.64	$1.34	-$5.3	46% 2702-3200 (5902)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Burgosavg 24¢	$1.2	$1.1	-$0.1	48% 2109-2267 (4376)

BaltazarGombka

CB Breogan Lugo

Invested

$1,700

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$289.15

Record

—

4-0 (4)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

CB Breogan Lugo

Invested

$1,867.84

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$295.14

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

omnibus-076daa

CB Breogan Lugo

Invested

$514.57

Value

$530.87

PnL

+$21.72

Record

46%

497-591 (1088)

Flaznorp

CB Breogan Lugo

Invested

$469.84

Value

$439.36

PnL

-$23.83

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Burgos

Invested

$195.37

Value

$123.39

PnL

-$71.98

Record

53%

41-37 (78)

NotJumpARB<$100

Burgos

Invested

$528.18

Value

$85.02

PnL

+$10.54

Record

52%

833-779 (1612)

Both legs:

Burgos$240.8345.9¢-$198.96

CB Breogan Lugo$12.5150¢+$209.5

38791873984189CTR<$100

Burgos

Invested

$83.48

Value

$50.64

PnL

-$32.84

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

CB Breogan Lugo

Invested

$46.07

Value

$39.25

PnL

-$6.82

Record

83%

729-152 (881)

poshposh<$100

CB Breogan Lugo

Invested

$35.4

Value

$35.17

PnL

-$0.23

Record

48%

1134-1214 (2348)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Burgos

Invested

$44.65

Value

$13.46

PnL

-$31.19

Record

31%

343-780 (1123)

lryyyCTR<$100

Burgos

Invested

$11.44

Value

$10.56

PnL

-$0.88

Record

45%

814-997 (1811)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Burgos

Invested

$2.16

Value

$3.24

PnL

+$1.08

Record

46%

294-351 (645)

suntoriCTR<$100

Burgos

Invested

$6.64

Value

$1.34

PnL

-$5.3

Record

46%

2702-3200 (5902)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Burgos

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

48%

2109-2267 (4376)

Research grade

AvoidCB Breogan Lugo at 85%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

CB Breogan Lugo

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on CB Breogan Lugo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpBurgos 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBurgos 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Burgos 73% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that CB Breogan Lugo wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.6%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.