Basket Zaragoza vs. Unicaja

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Basket Zaragoza (90%) · Basket Zaragoza at 100¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 15

Basket Zaragoza>99¢Unicaja<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Basket Zaragoza

Consensus Traders

Basket Zaragoza 90%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

$170.44

Smart Money Entry

59.1¢ → 100¢

+69% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidBasket Zaragoza at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Basket Zaragoza

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Basket Zaragoza100%

Unicaja0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Basket Zaragoza9 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares7,374

Combined PnL+$198.74

Unicaja1 trader

Total Value$6.37

Total Shares71

Combined PnL-$28.31

Basket Zaragoza — 90%Unicaja — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Basket Zaragozaavg 56.5¢	$3.1K	$2.9K	-$191.41	46% 1957-2309 (4266)
FL Flaznorp	Basket Zaragozaavg 47.1¢	$969.09	$1.5K	+$538.42	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Basket Zaragozaavg 52.6¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$141.55	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
└ Unicaja leg	Unicajaavg 57.6¢	$741.18	$688.65	-$52.53
└ Basket Zaragoza leg	Basket Zaragozaavg 52.6¢	$764.96	$675.94	-$89.02
LO looppau	Basket Zaragozaavg 99.9¢	$499.5	$499.75	+$0.25	99% 15830-133 (15963)
CI cigarettes	Basket Zaragozaavg 96.1¢	$379.52	$236.92	-$142.61	50% 65438-65762 (131200)
BI biying88888	Basket Zaragozaavg 38¢	$46.74	$102.09	+$55.35	48% 219-239 (458)
38 38791873984189	Basket Zaragozaavg 100¢	$154.34	$93.34	-$61	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
dips.<$100	Basket Zaragozaavg 80.9¢	$65.18	$66.89	+$1.71	46% 12026-13917 (25943)
VeryLucky888	Basket Zaragozaavg 45¢	$100	$43	-$2	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Unicajaavg 49¢	$34.68	$6.37	-$28.31	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
LR lryyy<$100	Basket Zaragozaavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.18	+$0.03	48% 39763-42635 (82398)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Basket Zaragoza

Invested

$3,066.66

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$191.41

Record

46%

1957-2309 (4266)

Flaznorp

Basket Zaragoza

Invested

$969.09

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$538.42

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Basket Zaragoza

Invested

$1,506.14

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$141.55

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

Both legs:

Unicaja$741.1857.6¢-$52.53

Basket Zaragoza$764.9652.6¢-$89.02

looppau

Basket Zaragoza

Invested

$499.5

Value

$499.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

99%

15830-133 (15963)

cigarettes

Basket Zaragoza

Invested

$379.52

Value

$236.92

PnL

-$142.61

Record

50%

65438-65762 (131200)

biying88888

Basket Zaragoza

Invested

$46.74

Value

$102.09

PnL

+$55.35

Record

48%

219-239 (458)

38791873984189

Basket Zaragoza

Invested

$154.34

Value

$93.34

PnL

-$61

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

dips.<$100

Basket Zaragoza

Invested

$65.18

Value

$66.89

PnL

+$1.71

Record

46%

12026-13917 (25943)

VeryLucky888

Basket Zaragoza

Invested

$100

Value

$43

PnL

-$2

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Unicaja

Invested

$34.68

Value

$6.37

PnL

-$28.31

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

lryyy<$100

Basket Zaragoza

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.18

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

39763-42635 (82398)

Research grade

AvoidBasket Zaragoza at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Basket Zaragoza

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Basket Zaragoza wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.