Seoul Thunders vs. Anyang

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Seoul Thunders (60%) · Seoul Thunders at 83¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 21

Seoul Thunders83¢Anyang17¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Seoul Thunders

Consensus Traders

Seoul Thunders 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$240.57

Smart Money Entry

55.7¢ → 82.5¢

+48% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidSeoul Thunders at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Seoul Thunders

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Seoul Thunders83%

Anyang18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Seoul Thunders6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,398

Combined PnL+$422.93

Anyang4 traders

Total Value$873.87

Total Shares2,330

Combined PnL-$182.36

Seoul Thunders — 60%Anyang — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
2H 2HAE	Seoul Thundersavg 58.7¢	$999.44	$1.4K	+$405.06	23% 28-96 (124)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Anyangavg 38.4¢	$793.12	$798.96	+$5.84	49% 3713-3859 (7572)
└ Seoul Thunders leg	Seoul Thundersavg 48.6¢	$322.4	$504.48	+$182.08
└ Anyang leg	Anyangavg 38.4¢	$470.72	$294.48	-$176.24
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Anyangavg 48¢	$568.19	$615.54	+$47.35	46% 469-554 (1023)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Seoul Thundersavg 80¢	$303.64	$313.13	+$9.49	38% 522-854 (1376)
VeryLucky888	Seoul Thundersavg 45¢	$317.6	$241.35	+$2.16	53% 1284-1125 (2409)
MO mouzsynapse	Seoul Thundersavg 44¢	$207.76	$214.85	+$7.08	39% 110-171 (281)
tradecraft	Seoul Thundersavg 45.8¢	$144.06	$143.23	-$0.83	29% 318-763 (1081)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Anyangavg 39.7¢	$285.62	$127.29	-$158.34	51% 2464-2405 (4869)
SU suntoriCTR	Anyangavg 46.3¢	$152.42	$79.05	-$73.37	45% 2465-2964 (5429)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Anyangavg 50¢	$50	$52	+$2	37% 956-1619 (2575)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Seoul Thundersavg 58¢	$2.9	$2.88	-$0.02	48% 2007-2139 (4146)

2HAE

Seoul Thunders

Invested

$999.44

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$405.06

Record

23%

28-96 (124)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Anyang

Invested

$793.12

Value

$798.96

PnL

+$5.84

Record

49%

3713-3859 (7572)

Both legs:

Seoul Thunders$322.448.6¢+$182.08

Anyang$470.7238.4¢-$176.24

omnibus-076daaCTR

Anyang

Invested

$568.19

Value

$615.54

PnL

+$47.35

Record

46%

469-554 (1023)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Seoul Thunders

Invested

$303.64

Value

$313.13

PnL

+$9.49

Record

38%

522-854 (1376)

VeryLucky888

Seoul Thunders

Invested

$317.6

Value

$241.35

PnL

+$2.16

Record

53%

1284-1125 (2409)

mouzsynapse

Seoul Thunders

Invested

$207.76

Value

$214.85

PnL

+$7.08

Record

39%

110-171 (281)

tradecraft

Seoul Thunders

Invested

$144.06

Value

$143.23

PnL

-$0.83

Record

29%

318-763 (1081)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Anyang

Invested

$285.62

Value

$127.29

PnL

-$158.34

Record

51%

2464-2405 (4869)

suntoriCTR

Anyang

Invested

$152.42

Value

$79.05

PnL

-$73.37

Record

45%

2465-2964 (5429)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Anyang

Invested

$50

Value

$52

PnL

+$2

Record

37%

956-1619 (2575)

ferdinand2<$100

Seoul Thunders

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.88

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

2007-2139 (4146)

Research grade

AvoidSeoul Thunders at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Seoul Thunders

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Seoul Thunders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.