Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Sonic Boom, while the market favors LG Sakers (67%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
LG Sakers vs. Sonic Boom
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Sonic Boom (67%) · Sonic Boom at 34¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 22
⚠️
Avoid
Sonic Boom
6
Sonic Boom 67%
$1.1K
$62.26
34.2¢ → 33.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidSonic Boom at 34%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors LG Sakers 67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LimousinCTR | Sonic Boomavg 34¢ | $697 | $727.75 | +$30.75 | 38% 1276-2118 (3394) |
FL Flaznorp | LG Sakersavg 57.7¢ | $264.61 | $295.93 | +$31.32 | 49% 4560-4822 (9382) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Sonic Boomavg 38.3¢ | $34.43 | $19.41 | -$0.22 | 53% 1805-1593 (3398) |
SU suntori<$100 | LG Sakersavg 60¢ | $9.52 | $10.23 | +$0.71 | 46% 3106-3639 (6745) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Sonic Boomavg 35¢ | $7.71 | $8.15 | +$0.44 | 50% 2799-2804 (5603) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Sonic Boomavg 41¢ | $5.54 | $4.8 | -$0.74 | 38% 1301-2146 (3447) |
Invested
$697
Value
$727.75
PnL
+$30.75
Record
38%
1276-2118 (3394)
Invested
$264.61
Value
$295.93
PnL
+$31.32
Record
49%
4560-4822 (9382)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$34.43
Value
$19.41
PnL
-$0.22
Record
53%
1805-1593 (3398)
Invested
$9.52
Value
$10.23
PnL
+$0.71
Record
46%
3106-3639 (6745)
Invested
$7.71
Value
$8.15
PnL
+$0.44
Record
50%
2799-2804 (5603)
Invested
$5.54
Value
$4.8
PnL
-$0.74
Record
38%
1301-2146 (3447)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.