Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Mobis Phoebus, while the market favors LG Sakers (77%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

LG Sakers vs. Mobis Phoebus

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Mobis Phoebus (80%) · Mobis Phoebus at 24¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 21

LG Sakers77¢Mobis Phoebus23¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mobis Phoebus

Consensus Traders

Mobis Phoebus 80%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$89.45

Smart Money Entry

27.7¢ → 23.5¢

-15% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidMobis Phoebus at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mobis Phoebus

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors LG Sakers 77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

LG Sakers77%

Mobis Phoebus24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LG Sakers2 traders

Total Value$261.15

Total Shares306

Combined PnL+$60.68

Mobis Phoebus8 traders

Total Value$196.91

Total Shares1,255

Combined PnL-$150.13

LG Sakers — 20%Mobis Phoebus — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	LG Sakersavg 67¢	$877.95	$825.28	-$52.68	49% 3640-3753 (7393)
└ LG Sakers leg	LG Sakersavg 67¢	$448.39	$615.97	+$167.59
└ Mobis Phoebus leg	Mobis Phoebusavg 16.4¢	$429.57	$209.3	-$220.26
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Mobis Phoebusavg 40¢	$572.5	$515.97	-$10.39	53% 760-685 (1445)
└ LG Sakers leg	LG Sakersavg 50¢	$229.87	$374.7	+$156.57
└ Mobis Phoebus leg	Mobis Phoebusavg 40¢	$305.46	$141.28	-$166.96
SU suntori	LG Sakersavg 64.6¢	$162.08	$205.8	+$43.71	45% 2420-2899 (5319)
VE VenusianCTR	Mobis Phoebusavg 31¢	$158.1	$81.6	-$76.5	36% 915-1634 (2549)
LI LimousinCTR	Mobis Phoebusavg 29.6¢	$108	$58.4	-$49.6	36% 902-1601 (2503)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	LG Sakersavg 60.9¢	$38.38	$55.35	+$16.97	51% 2426-2359 (4785)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Mobis Phoebusavg 30¢	$43.5	$23.2	-$20.3	36% 930-1626 (2556)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Mobis Phoebusavg 19¢	$12.5	$12.17	-$0.33	46% 462-548 (1010)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Mobis Phoebusavg 25¢	$14.19	$10.21	-$3.97	53% 1232-1075 (2307)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Mobis Phoebusavg 14¢	$7	$6	-$1	53% 6922-6099 (13021)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Mobis Phoebusavg 6¢	$3.12	$4.42	+$1.3	48% 3052-3353 (6405)
poshposhCTR<$100	Mobis Phoebusavg 6¢	$0.64	$0.91	+$0.27	48% 1031-1119 (2150)

FlaznorpARB<$100

LG Sakers

Invested

$877.95

Value

$825.28

PnL

-$52.68

Record

49%

3640-3753 (7393)

Both legs:

LG Sakers$448.3967¢+$167.59

Mobis Phoebus$429.5716.4¢-$220.26

NotJumpARB<$100

Mobis Phoebus

Invested

$572.5

Value

$515.97

PnL

-$10.39

Record

53%

760-685 (1445)

Both legs:

LG Sakers$229.8750¢+$156.57

Mobis Phoebus$305.4640¢-$166.96

suntori

LG Sakers

Invested

$162.08

Value

$205.8

PnL

+$43.71

Record

45%

2420-2899 (5319)

VenusianCTR

Mobis Phoebus

Invested

$158.1

Value

$81.6

PnL

-$76.5

Record

36%

915-1634 (2549)

LimousinCTR

Mobis Phoebus

Invested

$108

Value

$58.4

PnL

-$49.6

Record

36%

902-1601 (2503)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

LG Sakers

Invested

$38.38

Value

$55.35

PnL

+$16.97

Record

51%

2426-2359 (4785)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Mobis Phoebus

Invested

$43.5

Value

$23.2

PnL

-$20.3

Record

36%

930-1626 (2556)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Mobis Phoebus

Invested

$12.5

Value

$12.17

PnL

-$0.33

Record

46%

462-548 (1010)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Mobis Phoebus

Invested

$14.19

Value

$10.21

PnL

-$3.97

Record

53%

1232-1075 (2307)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Mobis Phoebus

Invested

Value

PnL

-$1

Record

53%

6922-6099 (13021)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Mobis Phoebus

Invested

$3.12

Value

$4.42

PnL

+$1.3

Record

48%

3052-3353 (6405)

poshposhCTR<$100

Mobis Phoebus

Invested

$0.64

Value

$0.91

PnL

+$0.27

Record

48%

1031-1119 (2150)

Research grade

AvoidMobis Phoebus at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Mobis Phoebus

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors LG Sakers 77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mobis Phoebus wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.4%

23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$293.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

393.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.