LG Sakers vs. Goyang

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold LG Sakers (56%) · LG Sakers at 100¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 14

LG Sakers>99¢Goyang<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

LG Sakers

Consensus Traders

LG Sakers 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

$414.32

Smart Money Entry

47.7¢ → 100¢

+109% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidLG Sakers at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

LG Sakers

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

LG Sakers100%

Goyang0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

LG Sakers5 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares6,488

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Goyang4 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares5,040

Combined PnL$-1.1K

LG Sakers — 56%Goyang — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on LG Sakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on LG Sakers) and the top 1000 (4 on Goyang) disagree here.

ctrGoyang 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedLG Sakers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Goyang 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	LG Sakersavg 39.2¢	$1.8K	$3.2K	+$1.4K	59% 33180-23350 (56530)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Goyangavg 46.4¢	$3.3K	$2.4K	-$870.43	51% 26991-25572 (52563)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Goyangavg 48.6¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$186.51	46% 1755-2052 (3807)
└ Goyang leg	Goyangavg 48.6¢	$1.2K	$702.31	-$475.86
└ LG Sakers leg	LG Sakersavg 41.2¢	$399.01	$688.36	+$289.35
VI vibing123	LG Sakersavg 73.7¢	$974.35	$898.96	-$75.39	52% 1663-1556 (3219)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	LG Sakersavg 51.7¢	$630.93	$685.74	+$54.81	50% 21519-21799 (43318)
└ LG Sakers leg	LG Sakersavg 51.7¢	$396.49	$544.82	+$148.33
└ Goyang leg	Goyangavg 48.2¢	$234.43	$140.92	-$93.52
dips.	LG Sakersavg 42.5¢	$182.33	$403.2	+$220.87	47% 10970-12572 (23542)
VeryLucky888	LG Sakersavg 71.3¢	$270.18	$205.34	-$64.85	58% 47408-34193 (81601)
alpheclabs2CTR	Goyangavg 41.5¢	$161.01	$116.33	-$44.68	47% 1344-1523 (2867)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Goyangavg 12¢	$39.61	$83.16	+$43.55	47% 9510-10646 (20156)
CI cigarettesCTR	Goyangavg 58.6¢	$288.46	$50.18	-$238.28	53% 24138-21186 (45324)
US User7429<$100	LG Sakersavg 39.2¢	$14.96	$38.17	+$23.21	56% 9218-7346 (16564)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

LG Sakers

Invested

$1,752.3

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

59%

33180-23350 (56530)

FlaznorpCTR

Goyang

Invested

$3,277.35

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$870.43

Record

51%

26991-25572 (52563)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Goyang

Invested

$1,577.19

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$186.51

Record

46%

1755-2052 (3807)

Both legs:

Goyang$1,178.1748.6¢-$475.86

LG Sakers$399.0141.2¢+$289.35

vibing123

LG Sakers

Invested

$974.35

Value

$898.96

PnL

-$75.39

Record

52%

1663-1556 (3219)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

LG Sakers

Invested

$630.93

Value

$685.74

PnL

+$54.81

Record

50%

21519-21799 (43318)

Both legs:

LG Sakers$396.4951.7¢+$148.33

Goyang$234.4348.2¢-$93.52

dips.

LG Sakers

Invested

$182.33

Value

$403.2

PnL

+$220.87

Record

47%

10970-12572 (23542)

VeryLucky888

LG Sakers

Invested

$270.18

Value

$205.34

PnL

-$64.85

Record

58%

47408-34193 (81601)

alpheclabs2CTR

Goyang

Invested

$161.01

Value

$116.33

PnL

-$44.68

Record

47%

1344-1523 (2867)

lryyyCTR<$100

Goyang

Invested

$39.61

Value

$83.16

PnL

+$43.55

Record

47%

9510-10646 (20156)

cigarettesCTR

Goyang

Invested

$288.46

Value

$50.18

PnL

-$238.28

Record

53%

24138-21186 (45324)

User7429<$100

LG Sakers

Invested

$14.96

Value

$38.17

PnL

+$23.21

Record

56%

9218-7346 (16564)

Research grade

AvoidLG Sakers at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

LG Sakers

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on LG Sakers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on LG Sakers) and the top 1000 (4 on Goyang) disagree here.

ctrGoyang 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedLG Sakers 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Goyang 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that LG Sakers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.