KCC Egis vs. Seoul Knights

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold KCC Egis (30%) · KCC Egis at 84¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 21

KCC Egis84¢Seoul Knights16¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

KCC Egis

Consensus Traders

KCC Egis 30%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$43.74

Smart Money Entry

75.3¢ → 84¢

+11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidKCC Egis at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

KCC Egis

3 of 10 top traders (30%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

KCC Egis84%

Seoul Knights16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

KCC Egis3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,495

Combined PnL+$45.05

Seoul Knights7 traders

Total Value$710.24

Total Shares2,349

Combined PnL-$1.31

KCC Egis — 30%Seoul Knights — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	KCC Egisavg 68.3¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$17.33	49% 3640-3753 (7393)
└ KCC Egis leg	KCC Egisavg 68.3¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$240.61
└ Seoul Knights leg	Seoul Knightsavg 22.9¢	$799.26	$541.31	-$257.94
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	KCC Egisavg 79¢	$790.01	$770.01	-$20	38% 509-839 (1348)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Seoul Knightsavg 21.7¢	$444.59	$551.12	+$106.53	51% 2426-2359 (4785)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	KCC Egisavg 50¢	$525	$514.5	-$10.5	53% 760-685 (1445)
└ KCC Egis leg	KCC Egisavg 50¢	$262.5	$383.25	+$120.75
└ Seoul Knights leg	Seoul Knightsavg 50¢	$262.5	$131.25	-$131.25
SU suntori	KCC Egisavg 65.7¢	$270.99	$348.44	+$77.45	45% 2420-2899 (5319)
tradecraftARB<$100	Seoul Knightsavg 30.2¢	$249.72	$248.46	-$1.26	29% 307-753 (1060)
└ Seoul Knights leg	Seoul Knightsavg 30.2¢	$146.22	$142.71	-$3.51
└ KCC Egis leg	KCC Egisavg 69¢	$103.5	$105.75	+$2.25
VeryLucky888CTR	Seoul Knightsavg 49.7¢	$149	$75	-$74	53% 1232-1075 (2307)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	KCC Egisavg 79¢	$65.3	$52.9	-$12.4	46% 462-548 (1010)
poshposhCTR<$100	Seoul Knightsavg 40.4¢	$59.49	$45.85	-$13.64	48% 1031-1119 (2150)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Seoul Knightsavg 49¢	$63.53	$44.34	-$19.19	48% 3052-3353 (6405)
└ Seoul Knights leg	Seoul Knightsavg 49¢	$40.73	$22.44	-$18.29
└ KCC Egis leg	KCC Egisavg 76¢	$22.8	$21.9	-$0.9
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Seoul Knightsavg 45¢	$22.5	$20.5	-$2	53% 6922-6099 (13021)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Seoul Knightsavg 43¢	$28.16	$10.15	-$18.01	44% 614-768 (1382)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Seoul Knightsavg 45.3¢	$6.9	$6.62	-$0.28	48% 1953-2074 (4027)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Seoul Knightsavg 47¢	$0.9	$1	+$0.1	44% 749-938 (1687)

FlaznorpARB<$100

KCC Egis

Invested

$1,912.31

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$17.33

Record

49%

3640-3753 (7393)

Both legs:

KCC Egis$1,010.5968.3¢+$240.61

Seoul Knights$799.2622.9¢-$257.94

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

KCC Egis

Invested

$790.01

Value

$770.01

PnL

-$20

Record

38%

509-839 (1348)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Seoul Knights

Invested

$444.59

Value

$551.12

PnL

+$106.53

Record

51%

2426-2359 (4785)

NotJumpARB<$100

KCC Egis

Invested

$525

Value

$514.5

PnL

-$10.5

Record

53%

760-685 (1445)

Both legs:

KCC Egis$262.550¢+$120.75

Seoul Knights$262.550¢-$131.25

suntori

KCC Egis

Invested

$270.99

Value

$348.44

PnL

+$77.45

Record

45%

2420-2899 (5319)

tradecraftARB<$100

Seoul Knights

Invested

$249.72

Value

$248.46

PnL

-$1.26

Record

29%

307-753 (1060)

Both legs:

Seoul Knights$146.2230.2¢-$3.51

KCC Egis$103.569¢+$2.25

VeryLucky888CTR

Seoul Knights

Invested

$149

Value

$75

PnL

-$74

Record

53%

1232-1075 (2307)

omnibus-076daa<$100

KCC Egis

Invested

$65.3

Value

$52.9

PnL

-$12.4

Record

46%

462-548 (1010)

poshposhCTR<$100

Seoul Knights

Invested

$59.49

Value

$45.85

PnL

-$13.64

Record

48%

1031-1119 (2150)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Seoul Knights

Invested

$63.53

Value

$44.34

PnL

-$19.19

Record

48%

3052-3353 (6405)

Both legs:

Seoul Knights$40.7349¢-$18.29

KCC Egis$22.876¢-$0.9

cigarettesCTR<$100

Seoul Knights

Invested

$22.5

Value

$20.5

PnL

-$2

Record

53%

6922-6099 (13021)

smithagentCTR<$100

Seoul Knights

Invested

$28.16

Value

$10.15

PnL

-$18.01

Record

44%

614-768 (1382)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Seoul Knights

Invested

$6.9

Value

$6.62

PnL

-$0.28

Record

48%

1953-2074 (4027)

lryyyCTR<$100

Seoul Knights

Invested

$0.9

Value

PnL

+$0.1

Record

44%

749-938 (1687)

Research grade

AvoidKCC Egis at 84%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

KCC Egis

3 of 10 top traders (30%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that KCC Egis wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.