Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold KCC Egis, while the market favors Daegu Pegasus (56%). 10 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

KCC Egis vs. Daegu Pegasus

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold KCC Egis (83%) · KCC Egis at 44¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 22

KCC Egis44¢Daegu Pegasus56¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

KCC Egis

Consensus Traders

KCC Egis 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$31.54

Smart Money Entry

57.1¢ → 44¢

-23% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidKCC Egis at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

KCC Egis

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Daegu Pegasus 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

KCC Egis44%

Daegu Pegasus56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

KCC Egis10 traders

Total Value$4.0K

Total Shares6,842

Combined PnL+$14.79

Daegu Pegasus2 traders

Total Value$499.16

Total Shares1,232

Combined PnL+$16.75

KCC Egis — 83%Daegu Pegasus — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO mouzsynapseCTR	KCC Egisavg 55¢	$916.43	$924.76	+$8.33	40% 154-228 (382)
NO NotradecopyCTR	KCC Egisavg 54¢	$732.76	$746.33	+$13.57	24% 64-201 (265)
FL FlaznorpCTR	KCC Egisavg 63.3¢	$692.24	$666.85	-$25.39	49% 4560-4822 (9382)
SN SnakeBallCTR	KCC Egisavg 60¢	$608.49	$552.37	-$56.13	47% 1160-1322 (2482)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	KCC Egisavg 50¢	$525	$510.56	+$0.16	50% 1068-1058 (2126)
└ KCC Egis leg	KCC Egisavg 50¢	$262.5	$286.13	+$23.63
└ Daegu Pegasus leg	Daegu Pegasusavg 50¢	$246.63	$224.43	-$23.47
38 38791873984189CTR	KCC Egisavg 55.8¢	$431.02	$501.8	+$70.78	48% 3854-4218 (8072)
LI Limousin	Daegu Pegasusavg 39.2¢	$364.31	$376.69	+$12.38	38% 1276-2118 (3394)
VeryLucky888CTR	KCC Egisavg 55¢	$359.18	$333	+$6.61	53% 1805-1593 (3398)
tradecraftCTR	KCC Egisavg 54.8¢	$129.3	$130.07	+$0.77	34% 444-880 (1324)
LI LightParadox	Daegu Pegasusavg 39.1¢	$118.1	$122.47	+$4.37	37% 1293-2176 (3469)
BI biying88888CTR<$100	KCC Egisavg 62¢	$74.4	$73.8	-$0.6	44% 237-307 (544)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	KCC Egisavg 64.5¢	$36.78	$33.42	-$3.37	50% 2799-2804 (5603)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	KCC Egisavg 43¢	$4.73	$4.95	+$0.22	45% 942-1132 (2074)

mouzsynapseCTR

KCC Egis

Invested

$916.43

Value

$924.76

PnL

+$8.33

Record

40%

154-228 (382)

NotradecopyCTR

KCC Egis

Invested

$732.76

Value

$746.33

PnL

+$13.57

Record

24%

64-201 (265)

FlaznorpCTR

KCC Egis

Invested

$692.24

Value

$666.85

PnL

-$25.39

Record

49%

4560-4822 (9382)

SnakeBallCTR

KCC Egis

Invested

$608.49

Value

$552.37

PnL

-$56.13

Record

47%

1160-1322 (2482)

NotJumpARB<$100

KCC Egis

Invested

$525

Value

$510.56

PnL

+$0.16

Record

50%

1068-1058 (2126)

Both legs:

KCC Egis$262.550¢+$23.63

Daegu Pegasus$246.6350¢-$23.47

38791873984189CTR

KCC Egis

Invested

$431.02

Value

$501.8

PnL

+$70.78

Record

48%

3854-4218 (8072)

Limousin

Daegu Pegasus

Invested

$364.31

Value

$376.69

PnL

+$12.38

Record

38%

1276-2118 (3394)

VeryLucky888CTR

KCC Egis

Invested

$359.18

Value

$333

PnL

+$6.61

Record

53%

1805-1593 (3398)

tradecraftCTR

KCC Egis

Invested

$129.3

Value

$130.07

PnL

+$0.77

Record

34%

444-880 (1324)

LightParadox

Daegu Pegasus

Invested

$118.1

Value

$122.47

PnL

+$4.37

Record

37%

1293-2176 (3469)

biying88888CTR<$100

KCC Egis

Invested

$74.4

Value

$73.8

PnL

-$0.6

Record

44%

237-307 (544)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

KCC Egis

Invested

$36.78

Value

$33.42

PnL

-$3.37

Record

50%

2799-2804 (5603)

lryyyCTR<$100

KCC Egis

Invested

$4.73

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.22

Record

45%

942-1132 (2074)

Research grade

AvoidKCC Egis at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

KCC Egis

10 of 12 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Daegu Pegasus 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that KCC Egis wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.