Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Wonju DB Promy, while the market favors Goyang (74%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Goyang vs. Wonju DB Promy

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Wonju DB Promy (71%) · Wonju DB Promy at 26¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 22

Goyang74¢Wonju DB Promy26¢Ends Sun, Nov 22, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wonju DB Promy

Consensus Traders

Wonju DB Promy 71%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$90.06

Smart Money Entry

22.7¢ → 26¢

+15% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidWonju DB Promy at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wonju DB Promy

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Goyang 74%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Goyang74%

Wonju DB Promy26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wonju DB Promy5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares4,894

Combined PnL+$87.03

Goyang2 traders

Total Value$47.53

Total Shares59

Combined PnL+$3.03

Wonju DB Promy — 71%Goyang — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBallCTR	Wonju DB Promyavg 20.5¢	$881.24	$1.0K	+$131.45	47% 1150-1295 (2445)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Goyangavg 73.9¢	$877.89	$949.84	+$71.96	49% 4509-4779 (9288)
└ Goyang leg	Goyangavg 73.9¢	$510.96	$518.87	+$7.91
└ Wonju DB Promy leg	Wonju DB Promyavg 21.3¢	$366.93	$430.97	+$64.05
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Wonju DB Promyavg 50¢	$525	$337.5	+$10	51% 1040-1018 (2058)
└ Goyang leg	Goyangavg 50¢	$137.5	$206.25	+$141.25
└ Wonju DB Promy leg	Wonju DB Promyavg 50¢	$262.5	$131.25	-$131.25
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846ARB<$100	Wonju DB Promyavg 24¢	$199.43	$199	-$0.44	40% 678-998 (1676)
└ Wonju DB Promy leg	Wonju DB Promyavg 24¢	$161.65	$154.91	-$6.74
└ Goyang leg	Goyangavg 66¢	$37.79	$44.08	+$6.3
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Goyangavg 62¢	$146.79	$175.34	+$28.55	50% 2776-2756 (5532)
└ Goyang leg	Goyangavg 62¢	$105.98	$128.3	+$22.32
└ Wonju DB Promy leg	Wonju DB Promyavg 21.7¢	$40.81	$47.04	+$6.22
38 38791873984189CTR	Wonju DB Promyavg 36.6¢	$128.68	$88	-$40.68	48% 3772-4126 (7898)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Wonju DB Promyavg 20.3¢	$61	$69	+$8	53% 7392-6516 (13908)
VeryLucky888CTR	Wonju DB Promyavg 48¢	$164.56	$51.5	+$7.9	53% 1770-1556 (3326)
LR lryyy<$100	Goyangavg 72¢	$41.19	$44.25	+$3.06	46% 925-1106 (2031)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Wonju DB Promyavg 40¢	$47.61	$27.97	-$19.64	46% 3071-3598 (6669)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Goyangavg 66¢	$3.3	$3.28	-$0.02	48% 2431-2662 (5093)

SnakeBallCTR

Wonju DB Promy

Invested

$881.24

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$131.45

Record

47%

1150-1295 (2445)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Goyang

Invested

$877.89

Value

$949.84

PnL

+$71.96

Record

49%

4509-4779 (9288)

Both legs:

Goyang$510.9673.9¢+$7.91

Wonju DB Promy$366.9321.3¢+$64.05

NotJumpARB<$100

Wonju DB Promy

Invested

$525

Value

$337.5

PnL

+$10

Record

51%

1040-1018 (2058)

Both legs:

Goyang$137.550¢+$141.25

Wonju DB Promy$262.550¢-$131.25

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846ARB<$100

Wonju DB Promy

Invested

$199.43

Value

$199

PnL

-$0.44

Record

40%

678-998 (1676)

Both legs:

Wonju DB Promy$161.6524¢-$6.74

Goyang$37.7966¢+$6.3

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Goyang

Invested

$146.79

Value

$175.34

PnL

+$28.55

Record

50%

2776-2756 (5532)

Both legs:

Goyang$105.9862¢+$22.32

Wonju DB Promy$40.8121.7¢+$6.22

38791873984189CTR

Wonju DB Promy

Invested

$128.68

Value

$88

PnL

-$40.68

Record

48%

3772-4126 (7898)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Wonju DB Promy

Invested

$61

Value

$69

PnL

+$8

Record

53%

7392-6516 (13908)

VeryLucky888CTR

Wonju DB Promy

Invested

$164.56

Value

$51.5

PnL

+$7.9

Record

53%

1770-1556 (3326)

lryyy<$100

Goyang

Invested

$41.19

Value

$44.25

PnL

+$3.06

Record

46%

925-1106 (2031)

suntoriCTR<$100

Wonju DB Promy

Invested

$47.61

Value

$27.97

PnL

-$19.64

Record

46%

3071-3598 (6669)

ferdinand2<$100

Goyang

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.28

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

2431-2662 (5093)

Research grade

AvoidWonju DB Promy at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Wonju DB Promy

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Goyang 74%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wonju DB Promy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.0%

26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$257.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

357.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.