Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Goyang, while the market favors Daegu Pegasus (51%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Daegu Pegasus vs. Goyang

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Goyang (29%) · Goyang at 49¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 19

Daegu Pegasus51¢Goyang49¢Ends Thu, Nov 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Goyang

Consensus Traders

Goyang 29%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$6.02

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 49¢

-6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidGoyang at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Goyang

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Daegu Pegasus 51%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Daegu Pegasus51%

Goyang49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Goyang2 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,059

Combined PnL+$30.59

Daegu Pegasus5 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,684

Combined PnL-$24.57

Goyang — 29%Daegu Pegasus — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Goyang. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDaegu Pegasus 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Daegu Pegasus 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI viper0310CTR	Goyangavg 52¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$30.09	—
FL Flaznorp	Daegu Pegasusavg 48¢	$869.76	$856.37	-$13.39	51% 1945-1901 (3846)
LI LightParadox	Daegu Pegasusavg 48¢	$336.66	$329.65	-$7.01	31% 423-938 (1361)
LI Limousin	Daegu Pegasusavg 48¢	$108.96	$106.69	-$2.27	31% 416-938 (1354)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Daegu Pegasusavg 48¢	$50.8	$49.74	-$1.06	—
FE ferdinand2<$100	Daegu Pegasusavg 48¢	$40.11	$39.27	-$0.84	—
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Goyangavg 52¢	$26.18	$26.69	+$0.5	39% 407-633 (1040)

viper0310CTR

Goyang

Invested

$1,564.6

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$30.09

Record

—

Flaznorp

Daegu Pegasus

Invested

$869.76

Value

$856.37

PnL

-$13.39

Record

51%

1945-1901 (3846)

LightParadox

Daegu Pegasus

Invested

$336.66

Value

$329.65

PnL

-$7.01

Record

31%

423-938 (1361)

Limousin

Daegu Pegasus

Invested

$108.96

Value

$106.69

PnL

-$2.27

Record

31%

416-938 (1354)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

Daegu Pegasus

Invested

$50.8

Value

$49.74

PnL

-$1.06

Record

—

ferdinand2<$100

Daegu Pegasus

Invested

$40.11

Value

$39.27

PnL

-$0.84

Record

—

sentrioCTR<$100

Goyang

Invested

$26.18

Value

$26.69

PnL

+$0.5

Record

39%

407-633 (1040)

Research grade

AvoidGoyang at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Goyang

2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Daegu Pegasus 51%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Goyang. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDaegu Pegasus 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Daegu Pegasus 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Goyang wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.