Yokohama B-Corsairs vs. Shiga Lakestars

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Shiga Lakestars (63%) · Shiga Lakestars at 71¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 21

Yokohama B-Corsairs30¢Shiga Lakestars70¢Ends Sat, Nov 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Shiga Lakestars

Consensus Traders

Shiga Lakestars 63%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$173.79

Smart Money Entry

66.5¢ → 70.5¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidShiga Lakestars at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Shiga Lakestars

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yokohama B-Corsairs30%

Shiga Lakestars71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Shiga Lakestars5 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,980

Combined PnL+$209.05

Yokohama B-Corsairs3 traders

Total Value$235.06

Total Shares840

Combined PnL-$35.26

Shiga Lakestars — 63%Yokohama B-Corsairs — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Shiga Lakestars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrShiga Lakestars 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedShiga Lakestars 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Shiga Lakestars 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO Notradecopy	Shiga Lakestarsavg 65¢	$999.99	$1.1K	+$107.69	19% 44-190 (234)
GA GamblingAddict12345	Shiga Lakestarsavg 65¢	$866.78	$960.13	+$93.35	51% 36-34 (70)
VI vibing123	Shiga Lakestarsavg 72¢	$455.76	$446.27	-$9.5	62% 1127-679 (1806)
VeryLucky888	Shiga Lakestarsavg 67.7¢	$239.3	$252.87	+$15.03	53% 1232-1075 (2307)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yokohama B-Corsairsavg 32.1¢	$226.84	$197.81	-$29.03	49% 3640-3753 (7393)
MO mouzsynapse<$100	Shiga Lakestarsavg 70¢	$86.81	$89.29	+$2.48	40% 110-167 (277)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yokohama B-Corsairsavg 28¢	$21.41	$21.41	+$0	48% 1031-1119 (2150)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yokohama B-Corsairsavg 39¢	$22.06	$15.84	-$6.22	43% 949-1283 (2232)

Notradecopy

Shiga Lakestars

Invested

$999.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$107.69

Record

19%

44-190 (234)

GamblingAddict12345

Shiga Lakestars

Invested

$866.78

Value

$960.13

PnL

+$93.35

Record

51%

36-34 (70)

vibing123

Shiga Lakestars

Invested

$455.76

Value

$446.27

PnL

-$9.5

Record

62%

1127-679 (1806)

VeryLucky888

Shiga Lakestars

Invested

$239.3

Value

$252.87

PnL

+$15.03

Record

53%

1232-1075 (2307)

FlaznorpCTR

Yokohama B-Corsairs

Invested

$226.84

Value

$197.81

PnL

-$29.03

Record

49%

3640-3753 (7393)

mouzsynapse<$100

Shiga Lakestars

Invested

$86.81

Value

$89.29

PnL

+$2.48

Record

40%

110-167 (277)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yokohama B-Corsairs

Invested

$21.41

Value

$21.41

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

1031-1119 (2150)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yokohama B-Corsairs

Invested

$22.06

Value

$15.84

PnL

-$6.22

Record

43%

949-1283 (2232)

Research grade

AvoidShiga Lakestars at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Shiga Lakestars

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Shiga Lakestars. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrShiga Lakestars 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedShiga Lakestars 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Shiga Lakestars 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Shiga Lakestars wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.