Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ryukyu Golden Kings, while the market favors Utsunomiya Brex (100%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Utsunomiya Brex vs. Ryukyu Golden Kings

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Ryukyu Golden Kings (56%) · Ryukyu Golden Kings at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Utsunomiya Brex>99¢Ryukyu Golden Kings<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Ryukyu Golden Kings

Consensus Traders

Ryukyu Golden Kings 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$355.98

Smart Money Entry

54.1¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidRyukyu Golden Kings at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ryukyu Golden Kings

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Utsunomiya Brex 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Utsunomiya Brex100%

Ryukyu Golden Kings0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ryukyu Golden Kings5 traders

Total Value$427.89

Total Shares1,194

Combined PnL-$290.94

Utsunomiya Brex4 traders

Total Value$164.23

Total Shares334

Combined PnL-$65.05

Ryukyu Golden Kings — 56%Utsunomiya Brex — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Ryukyu Golden Kingsavg 56.5¢	$871.83	$1.0K	+$133.46	51% 27041-25614 (52655)
└ Utsunomiya Brex leg	Utsunomiya Brexavg 26¢	$247.96	$619.08	+$371.12
└ Ryukyu Golden Kings leg	Ryukyu Golden Kingsavg 56.5¢	$623.87	$386.21	-$237.66
CI cigarettesCTR	Ryukyu Golden Kingsavg 54.8¢	$274	$267.5	-$6.5	53% 24313-21381 (45694)
BI biying88888	Utsunomiya Brexavg 64.4¢	$141.74	$106.68	-$35.07	67% 167-84 (251)
LR lryyyCTR	Ryukyu Golden Kingsavg 42.6¢	$120.2	$93.3	-$26.9	47% 9528-10656 (20184)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Ryukyu Golden Kingsavg 46.7¢	$65.32	$63.7	-$1.62	48% 5541-6053 (11594)
PA panpidaras1<$100	Utsunomiya Brexavg 59.2¢	$47.33	$41.59	-$5.73	47% 288-319 (607)
VeryLucky888	Utsunomiya Brexavg 35¢	$212.1	$12.73	-$24.32	58% 47459-34244 (81703)
US User7429<$100	Utsunomiya Brexavg 35.1¢	$3.15	$3.23	+$0.08	56% 9223-7354 (16577)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Ryukyu Golden Kingsavg 68.1¢	$3.41	$3.2	-$0.21	59% 33206-23372 (56578)
38 38791873984189CTR	Ryukyu Golden Kingsavg 60.3¢	$288.11	$0.2	-$255.71	48% 62365-67229 (129594)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Ryukyu Golden Kings

Invested

$871.83

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$133.46

Record

51%

27041-25614 (52655)

Both legs:

Utsunomiya Brex$247.9626¢+$371.12

Ryukyu Golden Kings$623.8756.5¢-$237.66

cigarettesCTR

Ryukyu Golden Kings

Invested

$274

Value

$267.5

PnL

-$6.5

Record

53%

24313-21381 (45694)

biying88888

Utsunomiya Brex

Invested

$141.74

Value

$106.68

PnL

-$35.07

Record

67%

167-84 (251)

lryyyCTR

Ryukyu Golden Kings

Invested

$120.2

Value

$93.3

PnL

-$26.9

Record

47%

9528-10656 (20184)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Ryukyu Golden Kings

Invested

$65.32

Value

$63.7

PnL

-$1.62

Record

48%

5541-6053 (11594)

panpidaras1<$100

Utsunomiya Brex

Invested

$47.33

Value

$41.59

PnL

-$5.73

Record

47%

288-319 (607)

VeryLucky888

Utsunomiya Brex

Invested

$212.1

Value

$12.73

PnL

-$24.32

Record

58%

47459-34244 (81703)

User7429<$100

Utsunomiya Brex

Invested

$3.15

Value

$3.23

PnL

+$0.08

Record

56%

9223-7354 (16577)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Ryukyu Golden Kings

Invested

$3.41

Value

$3.2

PnL

-$0.21

Record

59%

33206-23372 (56578)

38791873984189CTR

Ryukyu Golden Kings

Invested

$288.11

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$255.71

Record

48%

62365-67229 (129594)

Research grade

AvoidRyukyu Golden Kings at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Ryukyu Golden Kings

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Utsunomiya Brex 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ryukyu Golden Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.