Utsunomiya Brex vs. Kyoto Hannaryz

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Utsunomiya Brex (57%) · Utsunomiya Brex at 100¢ · $529 held · ends Nov 18

Utsunomiya Brex>99¢Kyoto Hannaryz<1¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Utsunomiya Brex

Consensus Traders

Utsunomiya Brex 57%

Total Value

$528.74

Combined PnL

$103.2

Smart Money Entry

54.8¢ → 99.5¢

+82% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUtsunomiya Brex at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Utsunomiya Brex

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Utsunomiya Brex100%

Kyoto Hannaryz1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Utsunomiya Brex4 traders

Total Value$517.26

Total Shares523

Combined PnL+$178.84

Kyoto Hannaryz3 traders

Total Value$11.48

Total Shares560

Combined PnL-$75.64

Utsunomiya Brex — 57%Kyoto Hannaryz — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Utsunomiya Brex. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Kyoto Hannaryz) and the top 1000 (5 on Utsunomiya Brex) disagree here.

ctrKyoto Hannaryz 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedKyoto Hannaryz 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Utsunomiya Brex 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Utsunomiya Brexavg 56.2¢	$249.87	$380.3	+$130.42	51% 1818-1779 (3597)
VE Venusian	Utsunomiya Brexavg 49¢	$54.83	$101.83	+$47	30% 373-861 (1234)
38 38791873984189<$100	Utsunomiya Brexavg 51¢	$28.71	$30.15	+$1.44	48% 1286-1384 (2670)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Kyoto Hannaryzavg 8.9¢	$33.21	$6.32	-$26.89	53% 5657-5082 (10739)
PA pagliacci4<$100	Utsunomiya Brexavg 99.9¢	$5	$4.98	-$0.02	43% 24-32 (56)
VeryLucky888CTR	Kyoto Hannaryzavg 53.6¢	$155.94	$3.39	-$45.31	52% 441-414 (855)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100	Kyoto Hannaryzavg 5¢	$5.21	$1.77	-$3.44	46% 109-130 (239)

Flaznorp

Utsunomiya Brex

Invested

$249.87

Value

$380.3

PnL

+$130.42

Record

51%

1818-1779 (3597)

Venusian

Utsunomiya Brex

Invested

$54.83

Value

$101.83

PnL

+$47

Record

30%

373-861 (1234)

38791873984189<$100

Utsunomiya Brex

Invested

$28.71

Value

$30.15

PnL

+$1.44

Record

48%

1286-1384 (2670)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Kyoto Hannaryz

Invested

$33.21

Value

$6.32

PnL

-$26.89

Record

53%

5657-5082 (10739)

pagliacci4<$100

Utsunomiya Brex

Invested

Value

$4.98

PnL

-$0.02

Record

43%

24-32 (56)

VeryLucky888CTR

Kyoto Hannaryz

Invested

$155.94

Value

$3.39

PnL

-$45.31

Record

52%

441-414 (855)

alpheclabs2CTR<$100

Kyoto Hannaryz

Invested

$5.21

Value

$1.77

PnL

-$3.44

Record

46%

109-130 (239)

Research grade

AvoidUtsunomiya Brex at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Utsunomiya Brex

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Utsunomiya Brex. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Kyoto Hannaryz) and the top 1000 (5 on Utsunomiya Brex) disagree here.

ctrKyoto Hannaryz 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedKyoto Hannaryz 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Utsunomiya Brex 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Utsunomiya Brex wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.